Future Forecast: 2016

Background: It is presidential election time, and a wide range of highly qualified and experienced candidates are vying for the position. With this as the backdrop, campaign 2016 offers many controversial viewpoints for voters to debate before decision day and voting.

Call it the hot potato game, bread and butter, and a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

Why is this future forecast the “hot potato game?” Well, everywhere on every issue, people, groups, companies, and governments want to champion and own winning objectives. Each is trying to wrestle ownership from the other.

The bottom line is about having their bread buttered. What is buttered bread? It goes like this:

A person, group, company, or government starts with knowledge in some area which is their expertise . . . “bread.” For the perceived value of their bread, they receive money which is . . . “butter.” There you have it, bread and butter.

In government, in the beginning, all was fine. Then, objectives began to evolve from democracy and capitalism to socialism. This change required a change in the “bread.” Even when the people involved were not in agreement with the new objectives, they were receiving “butter” and could not change their group, company, or government employer without losing their butter. They were trapped to do what they personally disagreed with. However, they must convince the voters they are in the right position and the voters must follow.

Many people, groups, companies, and governments find themselves in this predicament. It is a lot like a statement made by Winston Churchill when referring to the perceived objectives of Russia as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” A situation where the objectives are not announced, and can’t be explained. “We will have to pass the bill before we can find out what is in it!”

During the presidential candidate debates, exchanges between candidates included statements reflecting “riddles wrapped in mysteries inside enigmas.” Each stated others were misleading or outright lying, without offering a clear explanation or understanding of the issue.

The outcome of the debates left potential voters wondering just how qualified each candidate is, and which will make the better choice in each party. This is the situation the United States finds itself in regarding relationships in the global environment.

Major issues facing the successful candidate are:

Fed’s D-Day War Games: Breach of U.S. Debt Limit borrowing authority has been extended to March 2017. This is a case of the winner loses. Currently, the government has no conceivable way of accumulating sufficient tax revenue and fees to pay for budgeted items. Borrowing is the only possible way of meeting expenses. Who to pay on default has been determined to be Social Security and Military. Others to stand in line.

Unemployment and Underemployment: Problems in the winds with increased availability of unskilled workers and immigrants. Another case of the winner loses. Service sector jobs are lower-paying while the cost of living is rising. There is an inversion between income and expenses for lower-level income earners facing increased medical insurance payments and housing costs.

Affordable Care Act (Obama Care): The case where congress did not understand what it was offering via the “we’ll have to pass it to find out what’s in it” offer. Another case of the winner loses. The promise is to repeal the act. If so, it is a dual-edge issue. This year and forward, premiums are rising very fast and have become equivalent to car and home payments is some areas. However, eliminating health care will cause a riot.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution: The World Economic Forum is committed to improving the state of the world through the international organization of public-private cooperation.

At first blush, it appears as a noble effort, and surely would be providing it offered a true solution to unemployment for the middle to lower income levels in the US. However, recent global activity has not proven so successful, except for consultants and politicians. Another case of the winner loses.

While congress is trapped in a stalemate where it seems nothing is accomplished, agencies created by Congress are writing more regulations and further constraining business development.

Large companies continue to move operations and offices offshore to lower costs and avoid taxes. This action further reduces tax and fee revenue while increasing future government obligations.

This activity commits the US to underwrite development in foreign countries while the debt accumulates and borrowing increases. Yes, the world believes the US has much to offer by subsidizing development. The government believes this lowers product and service costs. However, does not reduce US welfare, unemployment, food stamp, medical, and infrastructure costs which are not provided for in an import scenario.

Opportunity, History and Destiny:

Success in the following issues posted as recommendations for President Obama’s State of the Union will be winners for the successful candidate for president. (posted to tidbits)

It must be acknowledged that the lopsided international trade situation created by the 1992-2000 administrations has cost the nation over twenty-two (22) trillion dollars in lost gross domestic product (GDP). And, resulted in over eleven (11) trillion dollars in uncollected taxes and fees. This must be corrected with the application of the same strategy and tactics of war-time logic . . . full mobilization to fix it.

It must be acknowledged that the inability to maintain the infrastructure is a result of off-shoring jobs which build foreign economies and infrastructures.

It must be acknowledged that to maintain the security of the nation, revitalization is necessary. Security, the prime charge of government provides jobs, enhances technical capabilities through development, and develops and maintains infrastructure.

It must be acknowledged that the real cost of imported goods is not limited to the purchase cost and sales price . . . but incurs unemployment, loss of skills, loss of self-reliance and respect . . . and is offset by unemployment insurance, food stamps, and healthcare costs paid by the government borrowing funds.

It must be acknowledged that seeking the cheapest solution, is in the final analysis, exactly that . . . a solution that focuses on symptoms rather than causes . . . and results in continual failure to make positive progress for the future.

It must be acknowledged that the US must regain the reputation it once held.

The opportunities are present, history will record, and destiny will not wait.

Background References:

New Rules: U.S. Economy and International Trade

New Rules: Economics for Politicians


Posted in Future Forecasts.