During the past few weeks, there have been several reveals of corruption in many forms. The subject of this posting will attempt to formulate a system/diagram the higher order of the hidden organization, members, and past domestic terror events.
In a sense, this further advances the primary objective and function of observation.
It is a fact, that as a group pursues radical objectives it grows in membership until a point of disarray occurs. That is to say that the group and their activities can no longer be controlled.
The terror actives identified in previous postings appear to be linked and controlled by national and international members loosely working together. Their identities and activities have been in the open without public recognition.
This posting will take time to evolve and is currently in the mass media market. There are no secrets here.
IntelRag will begin acknowledging and responding to comments in May 2024.
Potential events and issues are identified and indexed in several postings under the War and Terrorism Category. Consult them for a background in this upcoming effort.
There is an indication that these events and issues are initiated to create instability and profit via terrorist activities. From where does the initiative and support originate? Questions to be researched.
There have been insinuations that extend the tree to major elected political members inside the administration, to outside influencer’s, national and international.
What are the issues?
The possibility that terrorist attacks in the U.S. were a joint operation of foreign adversaries and members of the U.S., and possibly members of the U.S. administration. (9/11)?
Are current political/media attacks designed to preempt exposure of who participated in U.S. terrorist attacks?
Who facilitated the sale of U.S. land to the CCP?
Is it a coincidence land sales are located near sensitive military installations?
Thinking outside the sandbox . . . put down your pails and shovels.
Rational thinking has somehow taken leave of the entire education system, K-12 through Graduate School. The education system is provided through funding from taxpayers for the purpose of ensuring students acquire the requisite knowledge and experience to be succesful in their future careers. It is not the charge of the education system to indoctrinate students on perverted social issues.
Every facet of American life is under assult by educators who, themselves, can not quit playing with perverted information. It seems impossible to get a solid response on questions . . . what is a woman? The system is poluted with perverts . . . that is an observation!
International test outcomes rank U.S. students in the middle of the pack. Really, this indicates, on average U.S. teachers are ineffective. Yes, there are some good schools and graduates. However, on an international level the pack flunks. Too much focus on antisocial indoctrination. Maybe social mores have sunk the the gutter. Meanwhile, the barn door is open and it smells bad! Yes, that is an opinion!
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has come under increasing scrutiny the past few years because of its questionable trade practices and growing monopolies in technology, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, and even professional sports. President Trump’s administration was particularly astute about the threat of CCP infiltration into all areas of American life, and it took decisive steps to address the issues with revised trade agreements and defense acts.
The propaganda in our education system has been largely ignored, however, and it is one of the most subversive avenues the Chinese use to conquer from within. (Eagle Forun)
This is a sticky one! Keep in mind that this post is an observation and not an opinion. What's the difference? Occasionally, media information can be too much to be believed.
In the case of charges against President Trump, there appears to be gleeful piling-on which may be a result of joining the crowd. And the more complex an issue becomes, the more likelihood it will result in an unsatisfactory outcome.
When selecting an issue to be observed, it is important to identify possible causes and effects that create the issue.
Initial questions for a forward observation:
Who will benefit by the candidate's conviction of the supposed charges?
Is there foreign influence behind the courts to pursue the charges?
Are there international financial or political considerations at play?
Is this an attempt to preclude a successful election outcome?
Will a successful election outcome be undesirable to a foreign influencer?
These questions may appear inappropriate. However, remember this is now the subject of forward observation, and the questions may take on a different focus as the observation progresses.
Why is this posting listed in the APEX of Treason category? The media has presented observations that indicate there have been pay-to-play issues between members of the administration and congress that may include foreign influences.
This is an active posting that will continue to be updated as research on this subject progresses.
As complicated as it may be, there appears to a money trail from the U.S. Adminstration, which eventually ends up in the hands of terrorist groups. If the inentions of past and current administrations were believed to be for support of in-need populations, misdirection may have been the result.
The question that remains, is how often, by whom, and what were the amounts, and the relationships between the U.S. constituents and the foreign entities.
China has reacted to a recent U.S. report weighing up the possibility of simultaneous wars against both Moscow and Beijing by warning Washington that “those who play with fire will perish by it.”
The U.S. is not ready to face the challenge of the growing nuclear threat posed by Russia and China. This is according to a 145-page report released by the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States on Thursday.
“It is an existential challenge for which the United States is ill-prepared, unless its leaders make decisions now,” the report states. The panel behind the report, led by a bipartisan panel of six Democrats and six Republicans, produced the document after a year of research into the topic.
In the report, the behavior of both Russia and China is described as “militarily troubling and increasingly aggressive,” something that in turn has increased “the risk of conflict with two nuclear peers.” China is expected to reach nuclear parity with the U.S. by the mid-2030s, according to the report.
Russia-China ties ‘very important’ for global stability, Vladimir Putin says ahead of planned visit to Beijing and meeting with China’s Xi Jinping.
“They are trying to create the image of an enemy out of everyone who is not ready to blindly follow these Western elites”, with Russia and China often pointed out as targets, Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club’s annual forum, hosted by the Moscow-based think tank in the Black Sea resort town this year.
“The West always needs an enemy … the fight against which can explain the need for forceful action and expansion.”
Comment:
Following this logic, the terror visited on attendees to the festival in Israel by Hamas would be interpreted as a peace gesture for regional stability!
Perversion or Pervert: Recently members of congress read aloud from books provided or made available in the school library for young students which may have contained abnormal (pervert) sexual acts.
Does the post “Peeling the Onion” regarding the level of responsibility not responding to prevent such material apply? Does it extend to the top level of national responsibility?
Following may be an accurate definition of the contents of the material by Bing search:
A pervert is a term that can have different meanings depending on the context and the perspective of the person using it. Generally, it is used to describe someone whose sexual behavior or preferences are considered abnormal, unnatural, or unacceptable by the majority of society. However, this definition is subjective and may vary across cultures, religions, and historical periods.
Does the post “Peeling the Onion” regarding the level of responsibility not responding to prevent such material apply? Does it extend to the top level of national responsibility?
What does failure to act to restrict the referenced material as read indicate about the morality of the many levels of responsibility?
Researching what may have been considered a conspiracy theory, it appears that applying logic and reason cannot explain the size of the current cabal in place profiting from every illegal activity imaginable. Is there a trail of evidence? Possibilities are high.
Currently, politicians and law enforcement may be incapable of dealing with it. Mobilization of the military for domestic purposes may be required. Although the military is precluded from doing so. The cabal may have control of it also.
If, as research indicates, the U.S. may be a pawn of a criminal organization. This may explain the neutering of the news media.
Recent observations are filled with multiple charges and legal actions against the past president and his associates.
While at the same time, charges of seemingly criminal acts by the current president and associates appear to go on without hesitation.
The current administration appears to be charging that the past president is responsible for election interference, while at the same time, appearing to do the same with multiple questionable charges and trial date changes to interfere with the upcoming election.
The majority of major media appear to be providing cover for the current president and associates, while daily attacking the character of the past president.
However, it also appears that the onion expressed above may be peeling. What events and issues will be exposed in the future are unknown at this time. However, as the onion is peeled, it may reveal an increasing list of events and issues occurring in the past, and during the upcoming election cycle.
Peeling the onion may begin slowly and increase rapidly. If so, will actors involved and in fear of discovery, begin to desert and reveal the truth?
Question: Will there be revelations of support, or unintended support, for terrorism events and issues identified in the “Cause and Effect Analysis” posting?
Did Attorney General John Ashcroft’s statements in the SOTU 2023 list of international events indicate that possibility? If so, is that the main cause of the charges against the past president? To preclude the ever-increasing possibility of a change in leadership which may expose who or what is at the center of the onion?
Mapping of nonparticipative observation events and issues as identified in the Online Log page are referenced in the following SOTU 2023 posts:
Domestic Events: U.S. Capital Attack, Congressional Baseball Game, San Bernadino Terrorist Attack, Fort Hood Shooting, Oklahoma City Bombing.
International Events: 911 attack on the New York Twin Towers, World Trade Center Bombing, War in Ukraine, Afghan War, EgyptAir Flight 990, Pan Am Flight 103, Beirut Barracks Bombing.
Causes of events can be identified through the process of cause-and-effect relationship analysis.
Domestic Issues: Border Security, FBI Cyber Strategy, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Profiteering, Education, Law and Order.
International Issues: Biological Warfare, Chemical Warfare, Cyber Warfare, Nuclear War Threat, Trade Wars, Undocumented Immigration.
For clarification, there are many more events and issues occurring than are listed here and in the referenced posts.
Items selected demonstrate instability and conflict at the national and international level.
For external references consult the War on Terror from the History Channel as one reference. There are many more available. Search “War on Terror” for additional references. It is clear that terror is the current state of warfare.
Cause and Effect Analysis Applied: Education is a current example recommended for your analysis. Start from the “effect” (where the event or issue occures), and work backwards, generally up the vertical chain to identify the “cause” at each level in the chain.
The chain in this case starts at the student level and proceeds up the chain to the teachers, school administartors, district administrators, state board of education, U.S. Department of education, and the President.
It would not be unusual to encounter hostility at each level because personnel at a given level are in fear of reprisal from both the lower level (it’s too hard to change), to the upper level (fear and threats of intimidation).
Consider this: Starting at each level above the student, deviants who might have mental issues, might inject or modify policy which is contrary to reason. And, the level above the problem level is failing to correct the situation. If attention and change to deviant beliefs and behavior is not corrected at the top level of the chain, leadership at all levels will be corrupt. If true, many other events and issues outside of educaation may likewise be affected.
Question: Where does the authority and direction originate that implies the education system can cause students to hide information from parents?
Question: Where does policy guidance originate, and is enforced, for popular mass media to selectively report, distort or ignore critical news items? Does free press imply a license to manipulate the opinions of citizens rather than inform by reporting unfiltered facts.
Research Tactics: Begin at the effect (outcome) level and work backwards to identify the chain of events in reverse order to identify and correct improper issues as they are encountered. FMECA Analysis can be utilized for any problem that is in serial sequence (single chain), or parallel sequence (multiple chains).
Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), and problem solving are normally used in engineering applications, such as in the design, manufacturing, service, repair and testing of hard goods: cars, aircraft, household appliances and equipment and more . . .
However, they can be applied to management systems where policy guidelines are used in the performance of a task. Border security, passport system, telecommunications monitoring, immigration process, transportation systems and more . . .
The most common cause for failure in physical or management systems is failure of personnel to follow established guidelines, or guidelines that have been altered to ensure an incorrect outcome.
Events and Issues identified above are examples of failures in design and performance of management procedures.
The following video presentation demonstrates the progressive change in norms from reporting observations to analyzing observations, and finally promoting opinions on news items of interest to benefit a hidden objective. This becomes the Mask of Sanity.
Moving Forward II: Identifying the Process
Nonparticipatory observation researchers may find it difficult to remain neutral. Recall the objective is to note and report observations, not indicate the intent of actions observed. However, what is observed can be difficult to identify. There may be a transformation occurring where acceptable norms will be redefined, possibly in response to influences outside of the constitutional intent.
Cleckley's Mask of Sanity may be occurring where what is seen is provided for the observer and public but does not show the process occurring or coordinating relationships in the background. This practice is defined as Psychopathy, or a psychopath personality which is a mix of superficial charm, poor judgment, and failure to learn from experience.
The following Mask of Sanity issues continue while congress seems impudent in providing solutions. It appears what occurs in the background may benefit members of congress and other influencers, while the public sees a staged presentation prepared specifically for them. The educational system appears to be in lockstep with this process.
It is said that most of the public business conducted by congress occurs during luncheon sessions. Thanks to YouTube and CNN here is a purported example of such sessions.
The video is an opportunity for viewers to perform nonparticipative observation research of possible background issues. In a non-opinion manner, record your unbiased observations of the content.
Moving Forward III: Potential Issues
The background and process patterns observed may establish a future forecasting model based on the possible continuation of activities by (1) marketing performers and the effect of the (2) Mask of Sanity.
The metaphor of a tree is helpful in defining political processes internal and external to the United States, and outcomes posted in the War and Terrorism category. The significant number of issues listed in the posts will not be repeated here. Review them to understand the basis for the following discussion.
Roots of the tree represent the background issues of the Mask of Sanity. They are the unseen cause of the observable issues.
Trunk of the tree represents the media newscasters and marketing performers that for most, but not all media sources, convey the intended interpretation of the issues for the benefit their supporters and donors.
Branches and leaves are the issues outside the of mask which the general public observes. It is the task of the media members of the trunk to persuade or misdirect viewers to their intended interpretation.
Putting it in short terms, roots are the cause, the trunk is the spin, and branches and leaves are the effect.
Two of the top branch and leaves issues that fit into the metaphor of the tree are immigration and drugs. The following video represents the spin of the trunk.
Viewers can easily spot the branches and leaves. It is the function of the White House briefing to put the spin on the issues and misdirect responsibility elsewhere.
The question still arises, "where are the roots of the trees" causing the issues?
Summary: Seeking the Root Causes
Until recently, observers found it difficult to identify the cause of historical issues which are significant enough in scope to be of national and international concern. The reason for this appears to be the shielding of root causes by the previously identified "marketing performers" of most, but not all of the media and the White House.
Citizens of all countries do not have access to background sources (the roots) initiating the issues. A few current observable issues of a significant nature are:
The KGB vs. CIA: World-Class Spies? Provides a look behind issues over many years. Few of today's citizens are aware of the documented occurrences. What was an international concern has now become a national concern in the tactics used. 1,000-page document alleges politicization of FBI and DOJ.
The above issues are treated as routine occurrences in the media. Calls for responses to the issues are not immediate or significant. News reporting has become a 7/24 presentation by marketing performers.
Citizens will have to wait-out government healing itself. The ball of yarn is unwinding, and future revelations may be very serious.
Prior Notes:
[1]. Observation research can be initiated and continued when the researcher views unplanned occurrences of potential significance.
I’m a machine, not a human, but using AI I can talk with you. I’m here to help you find answers, create content, provide summaries on a variety of topics, and more.
Keep in mind that I sometimes make mistakes. Use your own judgment and double check the facts before making decisions or taking action based on my answers.
Comment: Bing AI is not very confident. Users must verify search results. Never put AI in charge of controlling critical items. Bing AI appears to be a glorified search engine.
Active research subjects will be listed in this posting and will be published in the appropriate category shown in the right-hand side navbar. Research presented in the IntelRag Online Log is intended to be understood and useful for most citizens with a high-quality 12th grade education.
Active Research Subject Areas: Events and Issues under consideration for research are listed in broad and general terms below. Specific categories will be assigned during research:
1. Education and the impact on national wealth and individual prosperity.
2. Artificial intelligence, now and the future.
3. Current and future state of science and engineering.
4. Effect of immigration policies on issues 1-3.
Research methods applied are nonparticipatory and passive in nature. This method is based on horizon scanning, a future technique. Observers acknowledge and record external issues and events, similar to noting, recording and reporting news and research narratives.
External events and issues may appear to be interconnected and/or repetitive in nature. When this occurs, the observer may initiate an external search for supporting data and information to explore validity for an initial hypothesis. When supporting data and information validate the initial hypothesis, research may continue to the next phase.
Observation Research Phase II:
This phase is conducted as nonparticipatory or passive observation research, meaning there is no contact or discussion with the subject(s) or objects observed. Refer to the Type of Participant Observation Chart.
The observation research process moves into a phase supported by multiple observers and/or the use of verified and validated data and information provided by external sources. Outcomes at this step are reported as observations, not as opinions.
To form opinions, the research process must include agreement among multiple observers and/or data and information sources on the same issue or event.
Observations should include data and information from reliable sources, such as government databases and reports.
When presenting data and information narratives acquired from reliable sources, the result is reflected as an observation, not as an opinion.
When multiple observers report concurrence regarding the same issue or event, opinions may be stated. However, opinions require credible evidence and proof of the hypothesis to be accepted.
Active research issues will be documented on individual subject pages with links under the "Research" menu.
Observation Research Phase III:
Observations reported in the Intelrag are summarized for citizens to review.
Upon completion, observations may be published as individual posts in the Online Log under a relative category.
Observation Research Phase IV:
Potential candidate issues to appear:
The Homeless - U.S. Economic Disequilibrium - Digital Warfare - Cultural Warfare & Insecurity - Far-east Instability - North Korea Weapons Test-bed - China Monopoly of World Resources - South and Central America Socialism - Status of the Soft WWIII.
Research Notes:
Observation researchers must establish and maintain the research process with care and vigilance. Far too often, personal attitudes or opinions are inserted into the process, thereby misdirecting outcomes away from the issues or events. This results in a case of analyzing a participant or external source thought process, not the issue or event.
When performing observations and evaluating outcomes of occurrences, be they related to things, ideas and concepts or actions of individuals or groups; observations frequently demonstrate interacting components forming a system.
People interact with things and other people, and express ideas and concepts between them as a system. Even things in the form of technology provide feedback which affects the interaction of things, people and groups as systems.
Organizations are hierarchical in nature, with a systemic relationship between levels. Activities and beliefs usually flow through an organization at varying degrees, from the top level to the lower level.
Technology systems may have sequential and/or parallel components and systems which are affected by data inputs throughout the main system. An error in data at one component can be feed to other components and systems causing irregular functioning or failure.
Refer to the Online Log - Research Category: Success with Complex Issues and Systems, and Complex Ordered Issues and Systems Model.
There are numerous research applications and techniques available for evaluating issues, events, conditions, science, engineering, finance, economics, anthropology, humanities, sociology, psychology and more.
Frequently research is presented as divided into two regions of logic, qualitative or quantitative. The fact that both of these general research regions are identified as "having issues," is perennial in the research community. Qualitative constantly attempts to prove it is quantitative, and quantitative attempts to prove outcomes are valid. The statement at the conclusion is frequently . . . "requires further study."
In reality, it is common, as presented in the process outlined above, to begin with qualitative research, and followup with quantitative research.
Another issue is the use of out-of-date references while performing research. There are thousands of colleges, universities and organizations worldwide, where researchers frequently utilize out-of-date and unverified references.
Ethnography is a term related to observation research of peoples and cultures with their customs, habits, and mutual differences. Keep in mind that as a nonparticipating and passive observer, the challenges can be significant. Presence of mind, the ability to remain calm and take sensible action is required to achieve success.
Research subjects are generally covered in statistics courses at the undergraduate level. Theoretical and applied research courses are required at the graduate level. Review of courses and videos depicts a dearth in the application of ethnography and observation research outside of college degree requirements.
Free Online Open Learning Courses: National University of Singapore (NUS).
Quantitative and Qualitative Research for Beginners: Basic introduction to the complex world of research methods and provides both theoretical and practical information for students to give them a foundation for carrying out research in a wide range of disciplines using quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods.
There are times, when to maintain a neutral mindset during research, breaks are necessary for self-introspection. During twenty-eight years’ experience in military aviation, and twenty years in higher education, the main lesson learned is that observable problems are not the problem. They are the effect for which there are causes.
The above list does not address all the causes however, they are the main topics.
Student learning environments have become more unsafe places recently, requiring institution of preventive measures. This very fact causes students to feel unsafe and obviously impacts the effectiveness of teaching and learning.
The U.S. Department of Education: Administers multiple federal programs designed to improve school safety, address critical areas of need for improving the conditions for learning and school climate, and to improve access to systems of support for schools, such as mental health services, trauma, violence prevention, social emotional and behavioral learning, school climate, and school emergency management planning.
Primary School: Attacks that have occurred on school property or related primarily to school issues or events.
Secondary School: Attacks that have occurred on school property or related primarily to school issues or events.
Post-Secondary School: Attacks related to postsecondary schools, such as universities or colleges. These are attacks that occurred on school property, faculty or related primarily to school issues or events.
Education Week: Shadowy criminal gangs with sinister names like The Dark Overlord are terrorizing schools. They hack into district networks and then demand hundreds of thousands of dollars in ransom payments, making threats of terrible consequences if schools do not agree to hand over the money.
Very Well Family: Comprehensive Sexuality Education is a program that starts in early childhood and continues through high school. It teaches that sexuality is a natural, normal part of healthy living and brings up age-appropriate sexuality topics.
Critical Race Theory: The Communist Marxist Left built its political program on the theory of class conflict. Critical race theory (CRT) has become a divisive ideology-based on race as a form of class conflict. It pits proponents and opponents against each other.
CRT: Has become a racially charged debate which is a misguided way to examine the inequalities in American society through the lens of racial injustice. Marxist-style revolutions based on race, ended in disaster. Socialist governments in the Soviet Union, China, Cambodia, Cuba, and elsewhere racked up a body count of nearly 100 million of their own people.
National Education Association (NEA): Education is political. When teaching about U.S. elections or politics, many educators will strive for neutrality. They may insist these discussions have no place in the classroom.
NEA: Adopted an agenda item stating, “It is reasonable and appropriate for curriculum to be informed by academic frameworks for understanding and interpreting the impact of the past on current society, including critical race theory.” This is considered a socialist political propaganda approach by some, not neutral.
Political Corruption in the United States: There’s a lot of corruption associated with political machines, particularly though not exclusively in urban areas. The political machines provide jobs for supporters, who use their positions to generate illicit income for themselves and the party bosses.
Public Education is Political: School is a hazardous environment. Poor quality education, unhealthy environments, narcotics easily available, and sex crimes. U.S. schools rank very poorly in international testing with a science and math ranking of 37th while China ranks first. Even in the arts and humanities, U.S. students rank 25th.
National Institute on Drug Abuse: In 2021, provisional data from CDC estimate more than 107,000 people died of a drug overdose, with 75% of those deaths involving an opioid. The overall rise in overdose deaths is largely attributable to the proliferation in the drug supply of illicit fentanyl.
In-School Surveys for Drugs Prevalence trends by drug for 8th, 10th, and 12th Grade Students. People who reported multiple symptoms consistent with severe substance use disorder at age 18 exhibited two or more of these symptoms in adulthood according to a new analysis of a nationwide survey.
Sex Crimes: An analysis found that at least 135 teachers and teachers’ aides have been arrested in 41 states between January 1 and May 13, which works out to about an arrest a day on average. The vast majority of the arrested educators were men.
National Center for Education Statistics: It is apparent the environment and experiences students encounter are not friendly in many instances. In conjunction with the internal environment on campus, there is the external environment off campus. Annual Reports . and Information Staff.
Research.com: Forty (40) Student crime statistics for 2021/2022, analysis and predictions. Reported incidents of violence in schools over the past few years have left parents, students, and even educators to question how safe campuses really are.
The Squad: Four members of Congress representing themselves as progressive women of color may have much in common with student protestors. They may be the image that student protesters emulate, however, in a violent way.
Student Protests: Theft, robbery, rape, carjacking, arson, gang activity, use and sale of drugs and many more activities, may be a response to the perceived and real environment. The negative issues addressed above are abnormal in an advanced, enlightened society.
COVID-19: Education, the lingering effects of unfinished learning. U.S. states and districts have the opportunity to not only help students catch up on unfinished learning from the pandemic but also tackle long-standing historical inequities in education.
Believe that their current political involvement does not give them the power to effect real change.
Identify with perceived victims of the social injustice they are fighting.
Feel the need to take action rather than just talking about the problem.
Believe that engaging in violence against the state is not immoral.
Have friends or family sympathetic to the cause.
Believe that joining a movement offers social and psychological rewards such as adventure, camaraderie and a heightened sense of identity.
Terrorism and Schools: As terrorism evolves and as more youth embrace extremist ideologies, there is a growing need to include processes to assess, prepare, protect, mitigate, respond, and ultimately recover from terrorism-motivated incidents within district and school safety plans.
On a good note:
American Heart Association: The House Education and Labor Committee approved the Healthy Meals, Healthy Kids Act, which would reauthorize federal child nutrition programs and help guarantee that kids are not only fed but have access to the healthy meals they need to learn. The American Heart Association, the world’s leading voluntary organization focused on heart and brain health.
Observations of past and present events. Narratives are not intended to indicate an order of significance. Depending on the individual reviewer or organization, summaries may have a different order of importance. In time each of the items below will be expanded.
(a). U.S. Capital Attack – On January 6, 2021, President Trump claimed the election had been stolen and mounted legal challenges in several states that he had lost. More than 2,000 entered the capital, many of whom occupied, vandalized, looted, and assaulted Capitol Police. Wikipedia.
(b). Congressional Baseball Game – On June 14, 2017, the FBI, federal, state, and local law enforcement partner agencies investigated a shooting at the Eugene Simpson Stadium Park. The mass shooting occurred during a practice session for the annual Congressional Baseball Game in Alexandria, Virginia. Wikipedia.
(c). San Bernadino – On December 2, 2015, a terrorist attack consisting of a mass shooting and an attempted bombing occurred at the Inland Regional Center in San Bernadino, California. ATF conducted traces on the weapons and has determined that they were purchased by the shooter from federal firearms licensees. No evidence that the weapons were purchased unlawfully.
(d). Fort Hood – On April 2, 2014, a mass shooting spree was perpetrated at several locations on the Fort Hood military base near Killeen, Texas. Four people, including the gunman, were killed while14 additional people were injured.
(e). Boston Marathon Bombing – On April 15, 2013, two terrorists planted two homemade pressure cooker bombs which detonated near the finish line of the race, killing three people and injuring hundreds of others, including 17 who lost limbs. The attack took place during the annual race.
(f). Fort Hood – On November 5, 2009, a mass shooting took place. A U.S. Army major and psychiatrist, fatally shot 13 people and injured more than 30 others. It was the deadliest mass shooting on an American military base.
(g). Oklahoma City Bombing – On April 19, 1995, perpetrated by two anti-extremists, killed at least 168 people, injured more than 680 others, and destroyed more than one-third of the building, which had to be demolished. The blast destroyed or damaged 324 other buildings within a 16-block radius. Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building,
Past and present selected observations considered important will be summarized. The summary is a standing post that will be updated throughout the year. Each year, the current copy of the post will be archived and become the basis for the next year’s post. Tenth Anniversary of the 2012 Future Forecast.
The future horizon may indicate international events affecting the U.S. are driven by root causes to manipulate financial markets for international, organizational and personal gain.
If so, this may open the door and expose participation by domestic and international interests in events against the U.S.? Refer to the “SOTU 2023: International Events” posting.
If the 9/11 report has the same lack of integrity as charges against President Trump by fifty security experts, this should be cause for concern.
Background I: Notes, Terms and Examples
Links in this posting open additional postings or external references for review of the subject listed. Close opened postings or references to return to this posting.
Issues are unsettled matters of a long-term nature where there is disagreement on recognition of the issues or the manner in which to resolve them.
Events are occurrences of a negative or positive nature noteworthy of recognition at the time of occurrence.
COVID-19 is an example of a negative event in which millions have died. COVID-19 has become a long-term issue in that there is disagreement on the origin of the disease, and the proper method to resolve the issue.
Subjective observations may be factual however, researchers may partially agree or disagree with observations presented. Typically used in social sciences.
Objective observations are derived from facts and conditions. Typically used in physical sciences and engineering.
Background III: Research Methods
Evaluating a single subject may be simple, while linking the effects of multiple subjects can become highly complex. Typical methods used singularly or in combination include:
Apply objective logic and provide a forecast for future years based on past and present observations. Where the past and present meet the future.
Forward I: Summary of War and Terrorism Issues and Events
Issues summarized in this post are listed in the War and Terrorism category. The summary will evaluate actions taken or not taken, and where responsibility is assigned. Based on outcome of past and present issues, the probability of future events will be presented. Summaries of Issues and Events will develop over an extended time.
2017 SOTU Part IV: National Defense, Security and Immigration establishes the basis for the 2022 Summary. The Oath of Office of the President of the United States and all members of Congress are plainly stated. Additionally, employees, lobbyists, contractors and virtually any position paid for by the citizens of the United States are covered by a similar Oath of Office requirement.
Forward II: Presidents
Presidents of the United States in chronological order. Entries contain links to separate pages with historical information for each president. (Wikipedia) (Encyclopedia Britannica)
Historical rankings of the Presidents of the United States are debatable. Surveys conducted by several independent organizations are listed. The lists are somewhat subjective in nature with different poll results provided.
List of wars involving the United States: There are 105 wars on the list, 4 of which are ongoing. The list is categorized as follows: conflicts, allies, opponents, results, and presidents at the time of conflicts. Wars listed on the above link provide a view of seemingly constant military actions. Consult the following list links for major conflicts. The periods listed may have intervals in conflict.
Note: Wars listed in the above references were essentially armed conflict between adversaries. There appears to be a change in methods from direct armed conflict to indirect confrontation and third-party players as listed in the Issue and Event Summaries below.
Of significant concern is the inability to hold aggressors responsible. Conducting business as usual with aggressors does not appear to have consequences. Individuals and groups appear to be practicing profiteering without loyalty to their home country.
Forward III: International Conflict
The IndochinaWar in which North Vietnam invaded South Vietnam is referred to as the Vietnam War. The United States in support of South Vietnam were confronted by the militaries of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), and Russia, which were both in support of North Vietnam. Prior to the Indochina War, the United States military were also involved in confrontation with the PRC and Russia when North Korea invaded South Korea.
The history of conflict with the PRC and Russia is longstanding and founded in the doctrine of communism and socialism. Observations have demonstrated that taking a liberal, non-defensive posture when confronting or negotiating with followers of the communist or socialist doctrine will not result in satisfactory outcomes.
Communism is a political, social, and economic ideology that advocates the replacement of private ownership and profit-based economies with a classless economic system.
Socialism refers to democratic control of recourses where everything is owned or controlled by the state as opposed to private ownership of resources. List of socialist states. (communist)
Islam is a religious system based mostly in the Middle East with the duty to struggle to gain resources and territory. Islam can involve aggressive behavior and the desire for conquest through Jihad. Modern conflicts.
Democracy is a system of government by the eligible population through elected representatives, and which embraces Capitalism where a country’s trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit.
Forward IV: Theoretical Discussion
YouTube: Firing Line video of September 10, 1995, with William F. Buckley Jr. and Henry Kissinger outline and define past posture of international issues over a period of thirty years (1960s-1990s). It seems that Communist, Socialist, and Islamic actor states have changed little since that period and may predict continuation of conflict into the foreseeable future.
Henry Kissinger expressed a point of view that it may be possible to negotiate and become involved in commerce with adversarial states given a strong stance and military were maintained. The cautious optimism expressed by Henry Kissinger may have been the catalyst that many government, financial, consulting, and commercial organizations needed to venture into the abyss with the PRC and other self-proclaimed unfriendly states.
Moving commerce in sourcing goods and services from the domestic economy of the U.S. and other democratic nations to unfriendly states has resulted in a loss of citizen and U.S. national wealth, and a significant increase in national debt. Refer to: U.S. Economy and International Trade, and currently to the Future Forecast Background for 2022-2028.
Forward V: Profiteering
Frequently comments in the media address the significant wealth generated by government insiders trading and investing in stocks. The basis for the comments appears to be advance knowledge of government actions affecting the market. Offshoring of U.S. manufacturing and services may have presented an opportunity that could not be resisted. This may be improper conduct and violation of the Oath of Office. The total sum of profits may not be significant, however, may demonstrate malfeasance. U.S. Politician Stock Trading.
Of greater concern may be questionable activities between members of the government, financial, consulting and commercial organizations using national positions to act as agents of foreign governments and entities. Although the U.S. government has a required budget reporting system, it is not a financial accounting system of annual budget expenditures. It is estimated that annual unaccounted funds may average twenty-eight percent (28%). With $6 Trillion budgeted for Fiscal Year 2023, the unaccounted value could be $1.68 Trillion.
Is profiteering indicated by acts performed for the benefit of self-proclaimed adversaries of the United States, acting as an agent on behalf of an enemy state?
Explosive New Connections? The Biden Foreign Agent Scandal – The Dan Bongino Show on rumble, may expose the roots of the tree as addressed in the Mask of Sanity.
2023 Running Summaries Continued
The history of war and terrorism is a continuous series of events and issues. Regardless of the location, today’s events and issues are most often affected by international influences based in Communism, Socialism and Islam. Leaders of countries based on these beliefs are most often concerned with personal power and conquest. Citizens of the countries are generally peaceful and subject to the dictatorial and repressive regimes.
Interim observation indicates, over time, worldwide warfare has been underway for decades and is increasing in severity. Self-described enemies of democracy appear to be anxious and fearless in their desire for escalation leading to major incursions.
Domestic criminal organizations appear to be expanding at a rapid rate impacted by loss of international control of immigration. This may become irreversible affecting even the supporters of decreased law enforcement.
SOTU 2023: Event and Issue Summaries:
Consult the Recent Post links on the righthand task bar for the following supplementary research posts.
Observations of past and present events. Narratives are not intended to indicate an order of significance. Depending on the individual reviewer or organization, summaries may have a different order of importance. In time each of the items below will be expanded.
Review of THE 9/11 COMMISSION REPORT titled: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks on the United States. The commission consisted of eight senior members (senators, governors and lawyers), and eighty commission staff in support of the effort. The most significant statement in the executive summary is that another attack is expected. Reasons for this are stated problems with foresight, planning and support.
Although there was an overall sense of discomfort that “something” was occurring, the ability to identify, track and impede unknown events was not supported by FBI (domestic), CIA (international) security efforts. Reasons stated were insufficient resources, inability to share information between the entities and ineffective tracking of alien movement within the United States.
Although a significant number of personnel were assigned to create the Commission Report, it reads as a summary. The main Commission Report is significantly more detailed with respect to FAA procedures, however, could not accurately track the hijacked aircraft.
Additional sections of both the summary and main report were superficial regarding real data. Tracking movement of terrorist members was essentially nonexistent. There was advanced indication that significant members of the group were known to be present on the east coast and west coast, routinely moving between locations. The fact that there were groups was unknown prior to the terrorist attack.
As stated, the Executive Summary indicates additional attacks are expected within the United States. The inability to track alien movement today is far more difficult given the growth in millions of aliens, documented and undocumented, entering the country. Are there terrorists entering the country?
Current efforts to control alien entry and movement does not appear to have improved, and may be interpreted as aiding alien movement, and potential terrorists.
(b). World Trade Center Bombing. Occurred on February 26, 1993. Later investigation revealed that Yousef’s Trade Center plot was far more sinister. He wanted the bomb to topple one tower, with the collapsing debris knocking down the second. The attack turned out to be something of a deadly dress rehearsal for 9/11. With the help of Yousef’s uncle Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, al Qaeda would later return to realize Yousef’s nightmarish vision.
(c). War in Ukraine. Ongoing international conflict between Russia, alongside Russian backed separatists, and Ukraine, which began in February 2014. Following Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists fighting the Ukrainian military in the Donbas war. The first eight years of conflict also included naval incidents, cyberwarfare, and heightened political tensions. In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
(d). Afghan War. Biden administration’s decision in April 2021 to pull out all US troops by September 2021 without leaving a residual force, were the two critical events that caused the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Following the deal, the US dramatically reduced the number of air attacks and deprived the ANSF of a critical edge in fighting the Taliban insurgency, leading to the Taliban takeover of Kabul on 15 August 2021.
(e). EgyptAir Flight 990. October 31, 1999 The cockpit voice recorder (CVR) recorded the captain excusing himself to go to the lavatory, followed 30 seconds later by the first officer saying in Egyptian Arabic “Tawkalt ala Allah,” which can be translated as “I put my trust in God.” A minute later, the autopilot was disengaged, immediately followed by the first officer again repeating the same Arabic phrase which can be also translated as, “I rely on God.” Three seconds later, the throttles for both engines were reduced to idle, and both elevators were moved 3° nose down. The first officer repeated “I rely on God” seven more times.
(f). Pam Am Flight 103. Shortly after 19:00 on 21 December 1988, while the aircraft was in flight over the Scottish town of Lockerbie, it was destroyed by a bomb that had been planted on board, killing all 243 passengers and 16 crew in what became known as the Lockerbie bombing. Large sections of the aircraft crashed in a residential street in Lockerbie, killing 11 residents. With a total of 270 fatalities, it is the deadliest terrorist attack in the history of the United Kingdom, as well as its deadliest aviation disaster.
(g). Beirut Barracks Bombings. Early on a Sunday morning, October 23, 1983, two truck bombs struck buildings in Beirut, Lebanon, housing American and French service members of the Multinational Force in (MNF) Lebanon, a military peacekeeping operation during the Lebanese Civil War. The attack killed 307 people: 241 U.S. and 58 French military personnel, six civilians, and two attackers.
Observations of past and present long-term issues. Narratives are not intended to indicate an order of significance. Depending on the individual reviewer or organization, summaries may have a different order of importance. In time each of the items below will be expanded.
(a). Border Security: Homeland Security’s mission is to protect U.S. borders from the illegal movement of weapons, drugs, contraband, and people, while promoting lawful entry and exit. Key findings about U.S. immigrants are rapidly becoming outdated. Immigration appears to be used as a political issue by all sides without any indication of rectification.
The failure of economic science is a main contributor to the problem. To be addressed under the Issue Summary for the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
(b). FBI Cyber Strategy: Security is a complex and rapidly changing subject. In essence, it is a fulltime 7/24 function to safeguard citizens, businesses and government from becoming victims. Consult their website for current information and how to report cyber-crime. Additionally, the link Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency is applicable. Cyber Crime – Credit Cards and Fraud.
(c). Bureau of Economic Analysis; BEA provides current data on the status of the economy, which may seem to the general reader, to be an obscure mystery of how the economy functions. Economics is a highly complex issue. There are thousands of economists at work in government, business and academia. The following is a very limited explanation of the topic.
Fundamentally, economists look for, and recommend, the least cost approach to producing products and providing services. In that regard, automation and robotics have proven to be more efficient than labor. That may appear to provide least cost, and therefore lower prices for the consumer, be they individuals, organizations or the government.
The least product and service cost approach is a fallacy and has led to a negative trade balance with more dollar value of products and services imported than exported. The negative trade balance is over $17 Trillion and is a main cost driver of the higher national debt. It does not consider cost impacts to the environment, lost labor income, taxes and fees not paid as a result of automation.
The loss of taxes and fees also drive the need to borrow to upgrade the infrastructure (roads, railroads, waterways, bridges, airports . . . etc.). It has been suggested that automation in the form of robotics should be taxed to partially make up for the loss of taxes and fees.
In reality, the efficiencies of automation create a REAL excess in the labor market. This excess can be expressed in terms of lower income service sector jobs.
Still, the open border concept is importing millions of lower skilled workers. The result of this combination of automation, lower skilled and lower paying service jobs, and increase in availably of workers as a result of excessive immigration, is leading to increased homeless and immigrants seeking government support, and eventually higher taxes to the citizens.
Profiteering by members of congress, business and finance markets indicate the driver of these issues may be acts performed for the benefit of self-proclaimed adversaries of the United States. In that event, they may have unintentionally acted as agents on behalf of an enemy state.
However, the result of highly unbalanced international trade is a complex issue which appears to be deeply rooted and leading to aggression toward the United States and other democratic nations via profits earned through excessive exports to these markets.
(d). Education – The Nation’s Report Card Data indicate outcomes in mathematics and reading for grades 4 and 8 continues to decrease. Although assessment of effectiveness of distance education ranked high, it reflects teacher confidence in their mastery of the process, not student outcomes.
U.S. Department of Education USA Facts must be evaluated carefully. Student-to-teacher ratios have decreased from 26.89 students per teacher in 1956, to 15.9 students per teacher in 2020. However, mathematics and reading scores are lower in 2020 than they were in 1956, averaging around 40 percent of expected outcomes. This situation existed prior to COVID-19.
Comparison of U.S. students to international outcomes places U.S. students in the middle-of-the-pack, nearly thirty (30) points behind Chinese students which rank highest on test outcomes. Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) Day: Global Lessons for the U.S. Education System and Economy: Published on Dec 8, 2018.
It appears that with offshoring of manufacturing, the U.S. has become a consumer-focused, service sector market, while China is a design, engineering and manufacturing environment.
(e). Law and Order – U.S. Department of Justice. The average citizen and many in government are unaware of the responsibilities of the department. The organization structure is quite cumbersome. The expectation created is that the Attorney General is knowledgeable of everything that takes place, whenever and wherever it occurs.
The legal system has ridged procedures when it comes to decisions and following actions. It seems somehow unusual that institutions of higher learning considered dropping courses on the constitution or dropping the subject to the status of an elective course.
As a result, high school and college students increasingly demonstrate failure to adhere to the rule of law. The point is that the intensity of criminal activity of every definition is increasing. As before, the data require close scrutiny. When group violence of all kinds is ignored, the data in the above references are not included that data. Effectiveness of the legal system reflects the failure of the education system. Accountability appears to be too difficult to address. FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting System (UCR).
Observations of past and present long-term issues. Narratives are not intended to indicate an order of significance. Depending on the individual reviewer or organization, summaries may have a different order of importance.
This post was suspended in response to the purportedly broad and high-level revelations of malfeasance committed before, during and after the nationwide election of 2020.
Reinstating this post was to occur when stability returned to the political scene. However, it must be acknowledged that the current period is unstable and clearly defines the hierarchy and the breadth of malfeasance.
Therefore, in keeping with the nonparticipative observation research methodology, research items address posts in the War and Terrorism category. Their effect on law, order, and national security are indicated. (Source: Future Forecast for 2022-2028).
Notes: There are at least two terms that are inferred from the following research.
(1). Sphere of influence is where a territorial area within which the political influence or the interests of one nation are held to be more or less paramount. The question raised here is are political actions by U.S. elected representatives receiving favors from enemies of the U.S. to support activities beneficial to the enemy nation?
Refer to the Summary: War and Terrorism post in the righthand navbar.
(2). Slippery Slope is a course of action that seems to lead inevitably from one action or result to another with unintended consequences. The question raised here is did politicians increasingly accept bribes believing enriching themselves is no cause for alarm?
(3). Both (1) and (2) above can also be implicated in actions at the internal U.S. level.
The Question: Where does responsibility for acknowledging and correcting the following reside? Refer to Note (4) at end of the page.
The following issues will be individually referenced and amplified.
Prosecutors are failing to protect the community by operating the legal system as a turnstile at a train station . . . in and out to commit more criminal acts at will. NEW YORK POST
Throwing the election system out the window saying it is prejudice when it requires personal identification. VOTE.ORG
Opening the border to allow free movement of drugs which are destroying communities and leading to higher levels of crime. Senate RPC
Economic science failure. The assumption that least cost results in the best decision is an error in logic. Does not take into consideration the cost of lost jobs, factories, degraded infrastructure and more, as a result of unbalanced trade. Investopedia -1 and 2
The accumulated trade deficit from imports for the period of 1992-2021 exceeds $17 trillion dollars. Status of the U.S. Economy – WITA
Funding for war and terrorism activities pursued by the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and Islamic States are primarily acquired by trade deficits, illegal activities in drugs, human trafficking and slave labor. RAND Corporation
Theft of trade secrets of the U.S. via digital communications and within domestic industry and academic organizations. National Law Review
Budget outlays exceed tax and fee revenues by $2 trillion a year and are increasing at an increasing rate. Economists would use the argument contained in the reference as substation of their prediction that the debt is not that significant. However, yearly interest payments exceed, the total cost of education for all K-12. That may be long-term delirium setting in. the balance
The Department of Defense indicates the U.S. Military may be degraded and undermanned and cannot effectively support a worldwide posture. NBC News – Task & Purpose
The education system does not provide well educated graduates. The U.S. is rated in (30th) place worldwide in math, science, and the social sciences. China ranks in first (1st) place. Pew Research Center
Socialist approach to Critical Race Theory (CRT) in schools is counter to equality. Freedom’s Forge America
Parents concerns that the U.S. government controls parents and students is a reversion to a totalitarian state where children belong to the state. ThoughtCo
U.S. education, research, and technology organizations depend on graduates from India. Some from self-declared enemy countries above that attended school in India. Reason for this appears to be the structure of education systems outside the U.S. with a focus on math and science. Market Realist
On average U.S. schools and colleges are not as intensive, and overall educators are not as qualified. Educators in many competitive countries continually upgrade competencies by advancing to higher levels of instruction throughout their careers.
U.S. corporations depend on graduates from foreign adversaries for senior management positions. Market Realist
Employment in manufacturing, nondurable and durable goods has diminished significantly since 1979.
U.S. Merchant Fleet has dropped from 16.9% of the World Fleet to .4% since 1965.
Note (4). Typically, higher order issue(s) serve as an umbrella under which the above may reside, and be the cause of the above.
Attempts to shield revelation of higher order issues may drive a continuous series of distractions.
Postings within this category indicate that war and terrorism are a combined set of activities.
War is generally considered to be an armed conflict between at least two independent nations. However, the larger the conflict, the more nations that may become involved.
Terrorism is generally considered to be actions taken to intimidate or harm citizens of one nation by another nation. This may also include activities within a nation such as organized riots, looting, burning, robbery and more.
The first stage of conflict appears to be terrorism. When terrorism does not produce the desired results, war may follow.
Contents of postings speak for themselves and will not be repeated here.
Key Points:
Funding for war and terrorism activities pursued by the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and Islamic States are primarily acquired by trade deficits of the free world.
The U.S. alone has accumulated a $17 trillion trade deficit for the period of 1992-2021.
Significant illegal activities in drugs, human trafficking and slave labor by countries identified in (1) above, also fund war and terrorism.
The free world is funding the economies, building cities, and developing militaries of self-proclaimed enemies.
Some members of congress, the administration, and international business, appear to have created this situation for personal profit, possibly through the misuse or misdirection of federal funds, leaving the citizens with a massive debt.
The loss of life is in the millions, and government by failure to stop or prevent indirect funding of illegal activities is essentially aiding them and may be considered complicit in the crimes.
In many respects, the U.S. is dependent on defensive material support from organizations listed in (1) above. This is a result of offshoring manufacturing to the least cost market. Doing so significantly diminishes the ability to be self-sustaining in military efforts.
The education system does not provide well educated graduates. As a result, the U.S. is rated in the middle of the pack at around thirtieth (30th) place worldwide in math, science, and the social sciences. China ranks in first (1st) place.
U.S. education, research, and technology organizations depend on graduates from countries listed in number one (1) above. Reason for this appears to be the structure of education systems outside the U.S. with a focus on math and science.
Theft of trade secrets by members of (1) above occurs externally to the U.S. via digital communications and within domestic industry and academic organizations.
On average U.S. schools and colleges are not as intensive, and overall educators are not as qualified. Educators in many competitive countries continually upgrade competencies by advancing to higher levels of instruction throughout their careers.
Therefore, many of U.S. corporations depend on graduates from foreign adversaries to lead research and development activities and advance to senior management positions.
Refer to the following “intelrag postings” which demonstrate the effects of Key Points identified above:
International Cyber Security: Worldwide roadmap of an interconnected system of universities specializing in computer science and cyber security developed in India, sponsored by UNESCO and funded by the USSR.
Status of the U.S. Economy: Data indicate much of the $30+ trillion national debt is, in fact, an outcome of taking a global perspective, where China and other countries have not reciprocated. A case could be made this is also funding Chinese and Russian aggression.
SOTU Backdrop Part VIII – Education: Education in the future must be in the real-world so students can experience at the pace of change, not locked in a classroom environment where learning is static. Students must learn advanced concepts earlier.
Read the postings in the War and Terrorism category for an in-depth understanding.
World War I, $334 billion was spent fighting the enemy. World War II, $4.1 trillion was spent. The disparity in spending is partially explained by the fact that U.S. was actively engaged in fighting during the final 4 years of WW II.
War on Terrorism, $1.5 to $1.7 trillion was spent between 2001 and 2014, but the War on Terrorism is stretched out over a much longer period of time.
Nearly 20 years after the United States invasion of Afghanistan, the cost of global war on terror stands at $8 trillion.
The number of men and women deployed to fight these wars during the same three periods was 4.7M, 12.2M, and 2.5M, respectively.
World War I: Began on 28 July 1914 and ended on 11 November 1918. Referred to by contemporaries as the “Great War”, its belligerents included much of Europe, the Russian Empire, the United States, and the Ottoman Empire, with fighting also expanding into the Middle East, Africa, and parts of Asia. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million people were killed in combat, while over 5 million civilians died from military occupation, bombardment, hunger, and disease.
Korean War: Fought between North Korea and South Korea from 1950 to 1953. The war began on 25 June 1950 when North Korea invaded South Korea following clashes along the border and rebellions in South Korea. North Korea was supported by China and the Soviet Union while South Korea was supported by the United Nations, principally the United States. The fighting ended with an armistice on 27 July 1953.
Big Question: In 2000, Congress made the fateful decision to extend “permanent normal trade relations,” or PNTR, to China. With PNTR in hand, the floodgates of investment were opened, and U.S. multinationals worked hand in glove with Beijing to create new China-centric supply chains. This resulted in a swift decline of U.S. manufacturing employment.
Why did congress create a relationship with the PRC and U.S.S.R. given their aggressive behavior against the U.S.? Maybe greed and other goodies? Maybe for stock advantages or, maybe some members of congress, consultants and media propagandists, are Unregistered Foreign Agents?
The alarm clock should have gone off when congress established Most Favored Nation (MFN) for China. However, congress slept. Actually, it would be unfair to lay current failures at the foot of congress alone. Business and academic sectors are equally responsible.
Historically, war has usually been considered armed conflict between at least two separate nations. At this time in history, this conflict has taken on additional forms for power and profit including:
Propaganda agents represented by major media and professional societies.
Who knows what greed and evil lurks in the hearts of men?
Propaganda agents are paid for and profit by misrepresenting issues in the media. Over time, citizens are programmed by the propaganda and become dysfunctional and unable to think clearly. Call it misdirection.
The question that needs to be answered, “is it too late” to wake up?
This series of posts may provoke emotional reactions from readers. It is similar to the metaphor of the boiling frog. Government leads business and education communities into the pot of boiling water. The difference is the frog reacts by jumping out before being cooked. Are politicians, business and education too greedy to realize they are going to be cooked.
Horizon signal events are periods of time that indicate the influence and activities confronting democracy. During the signal events, actions were taken by the U.S. Congress to create open access to U.S. markets.
World Trade Organization: Agreements contain special provisions for developing countries, including longer time periods to implement commitments. Developing countries including China comprise a majority of the WTO membership.
China and the WTO: Search by the “Country Tab” indicates China is involved in the significant number of trade disputes (3996). Whereas most other countries involved in trade disputes may average less than (100). The inability of the U.S. to maintain a balance in foreign trade has accumulated a negative balance of $17 trillion for the period from 1992-2020.
This imbalance has provided the funding necessary for adversaries of the U.S. to monopolize shipping, mineral resources, manufacturing, digital communications and financing worldwide. This advantage may indirectly fund terrorism activities, compromise international security and provide for international criminal activity.
Terror: A state or feeling of overwhelming fear by a nation or its citizens. Currently, invasion of the Ukraine by Russia is causing fear as citizens flee to safety in neighboring countries. Host countries sense fear in anticipation of Russia’s future ventures and destruction.
Terrorists: Advocates or practitioners of terrorism as a means of coercion. An individual, group leader, head of state and their accomplices.
Terrorism: China shares in the invasion of the Ukraine by supporting the action of Russia. Why does China support the current terror activities by Russia? At the time of the Olympics, Russia signed an agreement to provide grain to China. Russia needed more land to uphold the agreement and the Ukraine is a supplier of 20% of the world consumption of grain.
Vision of Humanity: Provides more information on the subject of the Russia, China relationship. Included on the website is an Overall Global Peace Index Score which lists countries by the level of peacefulness. Some of the least peaceful countries are Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, Russia, Iraq, Ukraine, North Korea and others. None of the least peaceful countries are democratic and many of their leaders are considered terrorists. Surprisingly, China is ranked 89th out of 160, in the middle of the pack.
State Sponsors of Terrorism: Lists only Cuba, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), Iran, and Syria. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) is not listed despite the issues identified above.
Items have been simplified for reading. Refer to the link above.
Enhance Global Counter-Terrorism Coordination.
Strengthen counter-terrorism capacity.
Improve visibility of efforts.
Ensure priority across the United Nations.
Ensure preventing violent extremism is rooted in Strategy.
Financing terrorism and criminal activity are generally considered separate issues. The attack on 9/11 and possibly COVID-19 are considered acts of terrorism for political and financial influence. The illegal importation of narcotics, money laundering, human trafficking and organ harvesting are examples of criminal acts for profit. These activities may become intertwined. Terrorist organizations may use criminal organizations to fund their terrorist activities.
Groups conducting terrorist activities, and criminal organizations may have separate legal business entities that are listed on the stock exchanges. Investors may be indirectly funding organizations involved in terrorism or criminal activities. In some instances, these organizations may also receive government grants, as with research at the Wuhan laboratory for the COVID-19 issue.
Accumulated Costs: The cost items addressed above total $31,634,000,000,000. That is 31 trillion, 634 billion dollars spent, projected to be spent or lost. This amount is equal to the total U.S. trade deficit.
Personnel Involved: Total number of military and civilian personnel involved in above wars 19,605,080. That is 19 million, 605 thousand, and 080.
Personnel Losses: The estimated number of military and other personnel died, wounded or missing 205,080.
Signal events will be published as independent posts which are complex and interrelated.
Horizon of Signal Events:
War and Terrorism.
Far East and European Terrorism.
International Terrorism.
Financing War and Terrorism.
Students Become Terrorists.
This post is the foundation for the war category. Content and links will be modified when information changes.
Target Prediction:
Institute for The Study of War: The West should pay close attention to the Chinese military’s preparations for urban combat, as these efforts will have profound effects on China’s policy toward Taiwan and elsewhere.
The editors forecast based on averages of all service levels over major wars indicates the military force to sustain free nations under attack during WWIII is as follows:
Minimum of 600 combatant ships and support facilities.
Minimum of 4,000 combatant and transport aviation assets and support facilities.
Minimum of 6,000,000 military and civilian support personnel.
Time to target is three years based on the current state of worldwide conflict.
The U.S. has repeated a catastrophic failure. Prior to every war, optimistic thinking has created situations wherein aggression is much more costly to standup to. The myth that, in relation to current events, Socialism, Shintoism, Nazism, Communism, and Islam countries will not attack is unreasonable. This is currently the case. Congress has created a situation where the U.S. is not self-stainable in warfare.
U.S. Strategy: Failure to prepare for two wars—one in the Indo-Pacific and one in Europe—“sends the exact wrong message” to America’s adversaries, Failure to prepare for two wars may actually “invite” China and Russia to take advantage of a conflict in the other’s sphere of influence. Research and development-heavy fiscal 2022 budget.
Frequently, it is stated that as a result of today’s complex weapons systems, the need for a significant military with accompanying noncombatant civilian support is unnecessary. Current aggression by waring nations and their accompanying criminal activity disproves that thought. Unless of course, the intent is to go nuclear, which is where the world is headed. Without conventional deterrence, that is the result.
Treasury Secretary wrong about inflation. The liberal attitude of the administration took advantage of the opportunity to make money by selling-out to China . . . money in the pocket and false greatness of the mind. The financial market in stocks and banking which was the cause the collapse in 1929 has run amuck again. Some will laugh and point to their holy bibles of finance and economics which never see it coming!
Economics is a failed science. It does not consider strength of the nation, and takes advantage of every opportunity, even with the enemy, to make a buck. New Rules: Economics For Politicians explains.
Posts represent opinions of the editor based solely on available public information.
Notes:
Posts are designed to be quick reads and represents the third cut on subjects.
Textual material consists of modified entries from the linked-to resources.
Postings are an index of detailed information accessed by selecting included links.
Organizations linked-to maintain ownership and are responsible for accuracy.
World history passed through several stages of development before arriving at this point in time. Over several centuries, geographical areas with homogeneous populations, languages and cultures grew into independent nations.
Trade between nations became a way of acquiring farming and manufactured products between nations. As time passed, the edge (boundaries) between homogeneous nations languages and cultures dissolved allowing the cultures of independent nations to combine.
Throughout history, timelines are marked by historical events, conflicts in the form of warfare, and currently terrorism. The sphere of influence within and between nations is displayed by leadership of one nation attempting to control, by military or economic methods, their internal political and trade partners.
Differences between political systems and access to material resources is the primary cause of conflict between nations. Each political system has their own method of citizen participation in governance and ownership of property. The U.S. is a Democracy while the primary aggressors to the United States today are the leadershipof countries with Communist, Socialist, and Islamic political systems.
Terrorism, specifically in the Far East and Europe are the focus of this posting. However, additional areas of the world are also mentioned.
Terrorism Links: Limited index of available information:
Our World in Data: Defines terrorism as the unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims. The reference is a significant worldwide compendium of information, charts and tables.
Foreign Policy Research Institute: Washington is looking to move-on from the Global War on Terrorism and put an end to the “9/11 era,” as the pendulum swings from a focus on non-state actors back to nation states. But, the enemy always gets a vote, and the psychological impact of terrorism will keep it as a front-burner issue for the foreseeable future, no matter which ideologies ebb and flow next year. Terrorism has become the form of war today.
statista: Terrorism in Europe with statistics and facts. Attacks by country.
Wikipedia: Terrorism in Europe nationalist and separatist movements. Terrorism by country and region.
The Diplomat: Terrorism in Asia before and since 9/11. Asian nations have been grappling with insurgencies and terrorism challenges. The Diplomat takes a look at 8 of them.
Significant territorial conflict has existed between cultures within the Philippine nation for decades. Essentially, it is a conflict where Islamic groups have continually transgressed on a Christian nation. This appears to be a model of current and growing conflicts worldwide.
Counter-Terrorism Links: Limited index of available information:
United Nations: Office of Counter-Terrorism provides UN Member States with the necessary policy support and shares in-depth knowledge of the global strategy and wherever necessary to expedite delivery of technical assistance.
UN Office on Drugs and Crime: Provides relevant and valuable resources for lecturers teaching courses on counter-terrorism in universities and academic institutions across the world.
U.S. Department of State: Threats posed by organizations continue to evolve, the Department of State works to build global consensus to degrade and defeat these adversaries.
FBI: Top investigative authority for intelligence capabilities to neutralize domestic extremists and help dismantle terrorist networks worldwide.
Notes:
Posts are designed to be quick reads and represent the initial cuts on subjects.
Textual material consists of modified entries from the linked-to resources.
Postings are an index of detailed information accessed by selecting included links.
Organizations linked-to maintain ownership and are responsible for accuracy.
FBI: The FBI’s Number one priority is protecting the U.S. from terrorist attack and categorizes issues as international or domestic.
International terrorism: Violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups who are inspired by, or associated with, designated foreign terrorist organizations or nations (state-sponsored).
International Terrorism: Joint address by MI5 and FBI Director’s warn of the growing threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to UK and US interests. The CCP is covertly applying pressure across the globe. Rather than lone actors, a coordinated campaign on a grand scale. Rather than proceeding at a lightning pace, the CCP has a strategic contest across decades. Rather than the actions of volatile individuals, there is planned, professional activity.
This plan may include planting agents (one ) – (two) within government organizations, compromising public and private citizens with payoffs and other unmentionable activities, and theft of intellectual property etc.
Domestic terrorism: Violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups to further ideological goals stemming from domestic influences, such as those of a political, religious, social, racial, or environmental nature.
Domestic Terrorist Attacks: Related incidents in the United States since the 1800’s. In addition to the terrorist attacks listed, it can also be searched as follows:
Lone Offender Terrorism: The FBI’s National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime and Behavioral Analysis Unit (BAU) describes the results of investigative research and media accounts since 1972. Data indicate that most likely offenders are between the ages of 18-44.
The Internet and social media: International and domestic violent extremists have developed an extensive presence on the Internet through messaging platforms and online images, videos, and publications. These facilitate the groups’ ability to radicalize and recruit individuals who are receptive to extremist messaging.
Social media has also allowed both international and domestic terrorists to gain unprecedented, virtual access to people living in the United States in an effort to enable homeland attacks.
The Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS), in particular, encourages sympathizers to carry out simple attacks wherever they are located—or to travel to ISIS-held territory in Iraq and Syria and join its ranks as foreign fighters. This message has resonated with supporters in the United States and abroad.
CIA: The world’s premier foreign intelligence agency, focusing on international terrorism. The CIA collects and analyzes foreign intelligence and conducts covert actions. U.S. policymakers, including the President of the United States, make policy decisions informed by the information provided by the CIA.
Separation of terrorism into international or domestic is a significant issue. At first reading it may seem that there is an ideological difference. However, it is most likely that this separation in designations is a result of the resources assigned to each agency.
NSA: The National Security Agency leverages advantages in technology and cybersecurity to strengthen the nations defense and secure national security systems. The NSA Cybersecurity Collaboration Center prevents and eradicates threats to U.S. national security systems with a focus on the Defense Industrial Base and the improvement of our weapons’ security and partners with allies, private industry, academics, and researchers to strengthen awareness and collaboration to advance the state of cybersecurity.
Interactive Constitution: Far-out at this point in time. However, the question occasionally arises in comments. The question is, “are any of the U.S. trading partners considered enemies of the U.S.?” If they commit terrorist activities or war against the U.S., “are investors supporting terrorist organizations or governments guilty of treason?” If so, does the Treason Clause of the Constitution apply to investors, and is the slope slippery enough to get there if they take treason actions or make war against the U.S.? This is one for the legal experts to ruminate over!
9-11 Commission Report: The table lists the content by chapter and provides download links and HTML links for viewing online. The first three chapters are linked below. Interested researchers can view or print online.
Chapter 1: “We Have Some Planes” is the background setting for the attack on World Trade Center Complex in New York City. The report is a significant read.
Chapter 2: “The Foundation of the New Terrorism” continues and provides the background setting for international terrorism.
Chapter 3: “Counterterrorism Evolves” may be of significant interest as it identifies a progressive listing of attacks prior to and including the 911. Chapter 3 narrative indicates indecision and disagreement over which agency is responsible for what, and within each agency which office is responsible. This disagreement seems to have been resolved.
National Library of Medicine: Who is to blame for COVID-19? Well, blame is unknown, however the global effects are somewhat known. Occurrences of pathogens appear to be in the future.
List of wars: 2003-present: Reflects the definition of war in the foundation post on WWIII. Terrorism is frequently reported during indicated events. International and domestic terrorism activities continue by the aggressor to intimidate the opponent and gain access without the need to finance a war between nations, or within nations. However, war and terrorism appear to be the current approach. The table includes links to the history of individual wars.
Education Research:
TraCCC: Transnational Crime and Corruption Center is the first center in the United States devoted to understanding the links among terrorism, transnational crime and corruption, and to teaching, researching, training and helping to formulate policy on these critical issues. TraCCC is a research center within the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.
NSI: The National Security Institute at George Mason University’s Antonin Scalia Law School
START: Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism website. A Department of Homeland Security Emeritus Center of Excellence led by the University of Maryland.
Norwich University Online: State-of-the-art offerings with a 200-year history of academic excellence and innovation. The nation’s first private college to offer civil engineering instruction to being one of the first institutions to receive designation as an NSA Center of Excellence in Information Security Education,
DEGREE CHOICES: Counterterrorism degrees, programs, and careers.
Posts represent opinions of the editor based solely on available public information.
Notes:
Posts are designed to be quick reads and represent the initial cuts on subjects.
Textual material consists of modified entries from the linked-to resources.
Postings are an index of detailed information accessed by selecting included links.
Organizations linked-to maintain ownership and are responsible for accuracy.
This posting explains how countries hostile to the United States are aided by profitable activities, legal and illegal, to finance war and terrorism against the U.S. and other nations.
$17 trillion trade deficit has been accumulated by the U.S. for the period of 1992-2020. This is an outflow of wealth that has helped support growth of foreign nations conducting war and terrorist activities, building their cities and infrastructure, and growing their militaries.
In addition to the $17 trillion legal transfer of wealth as a function of unbalanced trade, other forms of wealth transfer occur daily through illegal activities.
The World Factbook: Terrorist groups designated by the US State Department as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), as well as non-designated, self-proclaimed branches and affiliates of the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS) FTO. Entries include references to financial support.
9-11 Executive Summary: After the September 11 attacks, the highest-level U.S. government officials publicly declared that the fight against al Qaeda financing was as critical as the fight against al Qaeda itself. (National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States).
Chapter 4, Staff Statements: Combatting Terrorist Financing in the United States: (The Role of Financial Institutions). Several methods of financing are mentioned. Donations to reputable entities such as legal international welfare organizations. Money laundering by transferring income from illegal activities which cannot be monitored through international banking, and then supporting terrorist activities, or moved into legal activities which can be monitored.
United Nations: Countering the financing of terrorism. In order to be effective, efforts to counter the financing of terrorism need to rely more on financial intelligence sharing between countries and enhanced coordination between the public and private sector.
CFT Program: Global effort on on detecting, preventing and countering the financing of terrorism. Launched in 2020 to step up UNOCT and UNCCT efforts in this area as mandated by the General Assembly’s Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy and its review resolutions, and the Security Council.
Narcotics: Illegal drug trade or drug trafficking is a global black market dedicated to the cultivation, manufacture, distribution and sale of prohibited drugs. How $1 trillion in dirty money leaves poor countries each year has helped get financial transparency onto the agenda of world leaders.
World Economic Forum: Global conflict costs. There were 278 political conflicts in 2006. Ten years later, the number of political conflicts had risen sharply to 402. Total estimated cost Jan 15, 2018 was $14 trillion per year and rising.
UNDOC: Global drug use alone killed almost half a million people in 2019, while drug use disorders resulted in 18 million years of healthy life lost, mostly due to opioids.
CDC: U.S. Overdose deaths in 2021 increased half as much as 2020 – to nearly 93,655 deaths. The searchable tables indicate drug overdose deaths are up 15% annually by drug or class Jan 2015-2022.
Theft of national secrets by internal and external entities. Scientist resigned from the Oklahoma petroleum company where he worked at for 18 months. He planned to return to China and also reported that he hadn’t arranged his next job, so the company agreed to let him to stay in his role until his departure date in December 2018. Then came the billion-dollar stolen secret surprise.
Market Realist: Money laundering and terrorist financing in casinos. Transactions associated with terrorism financing may be conducted in very small amounts. Funds that are generated from legal sources make it even more difficult to determine if they could be used for terrorist purposes. Casino.org
Notes:
Posts are designed to be quick reads and represent the initial cuts on subjects.
Textual material consists of modified entries from the linked-to resources.
Postings are an index of detailed information accessed by selecting included links.
Organizations linked-to maintain ownership and are responsible for accuracy.
Background: The 2022-2028 forecast, as with all writings in the online log, postings are the result of observations of information provided to the public via the news media, government, and public organizations. Observations are not intended to provide opinions. Further information on the research process can be found by selecting the “research category” in the online log.
References provide a view of changing dynamics over decades and centuries. Current decision-makers rely on available information and must apply their knowledge (experience) and wisdom to possible cause and effect of their actions. Decisions made at one point in time may cause unintended consequences decades later.
Not included in the following is the law and order, and outstanding security issues occurring at this time. A new posting on the subjects will be forthcoming.
Consult the IntelRag Online Log posting Future Forecast Background for 2022-2028, and the IntelRag Blog posting War and Terrorism for detailed information regarding items selected for listing below. References contain significant additional information not listed here. Links open a new page.
See Notes at the end of the posting for additional insight.
Currently there are no efforts underway to correct the following issues. They are expected to continue in the future.
Prosecutors are failing to protect the community by operating the legal system as a turnstile at a train station . . . in and out to commit more criminal acts at will.
Throwing the election system out the window saying it is prejudice when it requires personal identification.
Opening the border to allow free movement of drugs which are destroying communities and leading to higher levels of crime.
Turning the United States into a market satellite of Communist China.
Economic science failure. The assumption that least cost results in the best decision is an error in logic. Does not take into consideration the cost of lost jobs, factories, degraded infrastructure and more, as a result of unbalanced trade.
The accumulated trade deficit from imports for the period of 1992-2021 exceeds $17 trillion dollars.
Funding for war and terrorism activities pursued by the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and Islamic States are primarily acquired by trade deficits, illegal activities in drugs, human trafficking and slave labor. Theft of trade secrets of the U.S. via digital communications and within domestic industry and academic organizations.
Budget outlays exceed tax and fee revenues by $2 trillion a year and are increasing at an increasing rate.
The Department of Defense indicates the U.S. Military may be degraded and undermanned and cannot effectively support a worldwide posture.
The education system does not provide well educated graduates. The U.S. is rated in (30th) place worldwide in math, science, and the social sciences. China ranks in first (1st) place.
Socialist approach to Critical Race Theory (CRT) in schools is counter to equality.
Parents concerns that the U.S. government controls parents and students is a reversion to a totalitarian state where children belong to the state.
U.S. education, research, and technology organizations depend on graduates from self-declared enemy countries above. Reason for this appears to be the structure of education systems outside the U.S. with a focus on math and science.
On average U.S. schools and colleges are not as intensive, and overall educators are not as qualified. Educators in many competitive countries continually upgrade competencies by advancing to higher levels of instruction throughout their careers.
U.S. corporations depend on graduates from foreign adversaries for senior management positions.
Employment in manufacturing, nondurable and durable goods has diminished significantly since 1979.
U.S. Merchant Fleet has dropped from 16.9% of the World Fleet to .4% since 1965.
Notes:
(1). Decades of auditing aerospace organizations and systems, and university programs and facilities, the attitude of superiority and denial are frequently impingements to achieving excellent results or correcting issues.
(2). Frequently external reviews of teacher performance, programs and procedures identify issues for correction. Satisfactory correction is frequently impeded by faculty and unions.
Forward: Future Forecast for the period of 2022-2028 will include outcomes of this review and update of parts of the 2017-2021 SOTU.
This includes observing actions of government, business, education, and international relationships over the past fifty (50) years. Additions to the review are Status of the U.S. Economy, International Cyber Security, and the Summary on War and Terrorism.
Section I: Arrogantignorance is reflected by national, state and city governments. Moving forward, this period is heavily influenced by malfeasance by public officials. Daily, public media reports are published consisting of deceit, deception, duplicity, lying, fraud and more.
Observation and data identified and linked-to in this review indicate the coming period of history from 2022-2028 is on a fast-track to national hazards and international conflict on a major scale.
The record is clear. The following situation could only be wished for by the Mafia. It’s as if the old Chicago Mob of the last century is running the country.
Question: “Does Communist influence exist in the United States Government?”
Observations: Frequently, actions and statements by the administration and members of congress appear to be misleading. What is said, is not what is done. There seems to be a form of intellectual subversion extended in the media, attempting to evade a true understanding by the general public and voter.
The result of deviating from solid principles of the past, provide activists the ability to express deviant behavior. However, as the saying goes, “be careful what you ask for, you may get it” and it will not be what was expected.
The current administration and congress have failed to protect the country from invasion by a “Trojan Horse of Troy.” Wholesale infiltration by an army of aliens of military age.
Prosecutors are failing to protect the community by operating the legal system as a turnstile at a train station . . . in and out to commit more criminal acts at will, from minor to major. Ransacking stores, raiding railroad cars, carjacking, assault, bank robberies, and worse – with a get out of jail card upon arrest.
Throwing the election system out the window saying it is prejudice when it requires personal identification. Who doesn’t have identification? Where is the person without a job, or collecting welfare, either of which require personal identification?
Opening the border to allow free movement of drugs which are destroying communities and leading to higher levels of crime.
Washington is turning the United States into a satellite of Communist China.
Reference: Socialist politicians function as Communists inside the government, serving without suspicion, that their actions are equivalent to that of communist spies, believers, and sympathizers. They influence decisions and actions by business, government and education in favor of communist governments.
History of the preceding century is important in identifying significant patterns of activity which influence the decision-making process and establishing benchmarks for this forecast. The natural state of nature for nations, as recorded in history, is cyclical internal and external conflict, with the objective of survival and expansion. The frequency of cycles is influenced by advancements in science, movement, and communications technologies.
Notes:
This study in preparation for the 2022-2028 forecast is written to be informative for all readers. It is supported by references to media, research, and verifiable data references.
Images and narratives in this posting reflect the underlying references. Links to the references will provide significant in-depth information with more accompanying images and tables, some interactive for exploration.
It is customary for education, government, industry, and international perspectives to vary on interpretations of the data based on their interests.
Readers should familiarize themselves with postings under the “research” category in conjunction with this forecast. It is important to remember that the content of the forecast is based on observations and data, not opinions.
ALL LINKS open a separate page. CLOSE the newly opened page to return to this posting.
Section II: Economics is a failed science.
The quantity of every product or service that is made, shipped, sold, and serviced is forecast and controlled by economic predictions.
Economic science fails because the pursuit of least cost per unit of items produced does not consider the costs to society by their actions. The assumption that least cost results in the best decision is an error in logic. Economic decisions to purchase where costs are lowest does not take into consideration the cost of lost jobs, factories, degraded infrastructure and more, as a result of unbalanced trade. The accumulated trade deficit from imports for the period of 1992-2021 exceeds 17 trillion dollars.
Failure to consider taxes in the form of personal and business taxes paid by employees and businesses for domestic production may lower import prices of goods and services. However, the cost to renew infrastructure, pay unemployment and all other benefits, requires borrowing and increasing the national debt. Current interest payments on the national debt exceeds the total cost of K-12 education for the entire nation.
Data Lab: USA Government Finance Guide. Visualizations to help you understand government finance. The Resource Menu Includes an Analyst’s Guide and Student Innovator’s Toolbox for instructors and students.
Tables and links to references demonstrate a declining abiltiy to remain self sustainable. Deficits appear to be programmed to remain at 2 Trillion annually, and possibly increase at an increasing rate.
Increases in GDP: Over time, an increase in prices as reflected by the consumer price index (CPI) for the same quantity of goods will indicate an increase in GDP.
This is an update to the Original 2017 SOTU SUMMARY and covers the period of 2017-2021. In conjunction with other cited references, it serves as the basis for the Future Forecast 2022-2028.
Note: all links open a new page. To return to this summary, just close the opened page.
New additions: Status of the U.S. Economy, and International Cyber Security.
Observation of issues from a high level indicates conflicts regarding the economy are political. The U.S. is a great country in most respects, however, there seems to be a disconnect between idealism and reality.
Idealism produces an endless array of social programs for which, politicians believe, there is sufficient funding. This is a myth as the deficit now represents five years of federal revenue from taxes, etc. The reality is there has been a growing federal deficit since 1992.
Imports vs Exports & Trade Deficit indicate the total trade deficit for the period 1992-2021 is 17 trillion, 132 billion, 255 million. That is 815,820,238,095 on an annual basis.
Annual interest payments on the national debt now exceeds $550,000,000,000, nearly the total cost of education for K-12 schools, or the Department of Defense budget.
What does the future hold? Possibly a reduction in social programs as the national deficit grows. Social programs, healthcare and more will suffer lower and discontinuing services.
The real data shows the U.S. is well on the way to bankruptcy. Annual revenue vs programmed expenditures indicates a significant departure from fiscal responsibility.
The point being, that occasionally organizations and society become so engrossed in the detail, that they miss the overall picture and can’t see the forest for the trees.
Most of the trade deficit is a result of unbalanced trade with Asia, mainly China.
Refer to the posting on Status of the U.S. Economy.
The education service industry is indeed global, and possibly covers every continent and culture. Networks of agreements exist between global universities and employers.
Universities worldwide are developing large-scale interconnected campuses that resemble towns and factories. Examples of large-scale campuses are IIT Bombay, India, the National University of Singapore, and the Suzhou Dushu Lake Higher Education Town of the Peoples Republic of China, all interconnected.
Internationally, coursework outside the degree program is limited. As a result, more time and depth of study is provided allowing students to focus more on how-to-do-it. U.S. colleges and universities require, on average, one to one and a half years of study outside technical degrees of study.
Therefore, in many ways, U.S. students are not competitive. Many large companies in the U.S. are headed by graduates from foreign degree programs.
Hardware and software companies provide international academic organizations with products to practice-on and make engineering changes-to under contract.
DEF CON Workshops are provided by organizations that teach participants how to secure, or hack through the cyber security of sites to access or change content.
Computer systems located in China and North Korea routinely crawl the worldwide web, hacking into U.S. banks and companies to access funds and trade secrets.
Refer to the posting on International Cyber Security.
SOTU 2017 Upadates:
Oath of Office:
Ben’s Guide: Known as a swearing-in ceremony. The official reciting the oath swears an allegiance to uphold the Constitution.
The Constitution only specifies an oath of office for the President; however, Article VI of the Constitution states that other officials, including members of Congress, “shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation to support this constitution.”
U.S. Students Achievement Level:
U.S. students’ math skills have remained stagnant for decades. This means they are falling behind many other countries, and scores are now below the global average.
Students placed 11th out of 79 countries in science and 30th in math. When analyzing the U.S. results over the years, there has not been any improvement in math since 2003, and no improvement in science since 2006.
Micro-communities within host nation borders:
ADWEEK: Announcement of the upcoming #SMWLDN on Nov. 2 – 4, 2021 provides an insight into reimagining social media marketing for a better tomorrow.
Forbes: article on The How And Why Of Building Micro-Communities On Social Media.
Today, more than 40 million people living in the U.S. were born in another country, accounting for about one-fifth of the world’s migrants.
Unskilled job market shrinking:
MIT: Study finds job-replacing tech has directly driven the income gap and loss of jobs for the unskilled continues.
Within industries adopting automation, the study shows, the average “displacement” (or job loss) from 1987-2016, displacement was 16 percent, while reinstatement was just 10 percent.
In short, those factory positions or phone-answering jobs are not coming back.
Bureau of Labor Statistics:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a variety of news releases and publications on economic data. BLS employs many surveys and statistical methods developed and refined over the course of the year. This is an excellent source to use for original research data. Strategic Plan, FY 2020-2025.
However, keep in mind that data is frequently updated during the year. Always recheck the source for changes.
Free money for all:
AP News: In experiments across the country, dozens of cities and counties — some using money from the $1.9 trillion COVID relief package approved in March.
Proposed levels of payment are $500 to $1,000 each month to do with as they please and tracking what happens.
The nation’s workforce, including employment and unemployment levels, as well as weeks and hours worked.
Data collection also includes occupation, industry, and class of worker (e.g., self-employed, working for a private firm, or working for a government agency) in the American labor force.
Included are behavior and estimates of home-based work.
U.S. contribution to the U.N.
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: The United States remains the largest donor to the United Nations, contributing roughly $11 billion in 2019, which accounted for just under one-fifth of funding for the body’s collective budget.
Included are the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and the World Food Program (WFP).
Government Accountability Office:
GAO@100: A century of GAO activities in non-partisan fact-based work. The presentation is a modern web design with a graphic presentation of areas of interest.
Included are current trends in Artificial Intelligence (AI) Automation and the Internet of Things, Blockchain & Distributed Technologies, climate, health, and weapons, and more.
Cost of Violence as Percent of World GDP:
VISION OF HUMANITY: The economic impact of violence improved by 0.2 percent from 2018 to 2019. The biggest improvement was in armed conflict, which decreased by 29 percent to $521 billion.
In the ten countries most affected by violence, the average economic impact of violence was equivalent to 41 per cent of GDP.
Cost of lobbying exceeds $3 billion annually and over 12,000 lobbyists:
Open Secrets: The combined organization, OpenSecrets, merges the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP) and the National Institute on Money in Politics (NIMP).
The total cost of lobbying, and the number of lobbyists continues to increase.
New World Order:
The Atlantic: In 2016, Australia struck a deal with France to buy a fleet of diesel-powered submarines.
Australians will scrap their agreement with France and team up with Britain and the U.S. instead, forming a new “AUKUS” military alliance in the process.
In many ways, this is because health care is treated differently than almost every other service.
$10 for an aspirin; $300 for a single X-ray; $8,000 for an emergency room visit.
World economic situation:
United Nations: Global manufacturing-dependent economies are faring better, both during the crisis and the recovery period. Trade-in services, in particular tourism, will remain depressed amid the slow lifting of restrictions on international travel and fear of new waves of infection in many developing countries.
According to the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) mid-2021 report, following a sharp contraction of 3.6 percent in 2020, the global economy is now projected to expand by 5.4 percent in 2021,
Marijuana Trends Among 8th, 10th, and 12th Grades:
Monitoring the Future: Daily marijuana prevalence rose in all three grades in 2019, significantly so in the lower two grades, with a further increase in 2020.
It is noteworthy that among 8th graders, it showed little change between 1996 and 2019.
In 2020, in all three grades, daily marijuana levels were at or near the highest level recorded since 1991 (1.1%, 4.4%, and 6.9%). Refer to page 14.
U.S. $42 Trillion GDP loss:
AP NEWS: US Economy grows 6.4% in Q1, and it’s likely just the start. The economy may have grown 6.4%, but from what baseline? Additionally, the U.S. GDP loss increased significantly.
Applying the 250% formula as depicted in New Rules, the cumulative GDP loss since 1992 is $42 Trillion.
Harvard: U.S. Competitiveness: A Recovery Squandered. Structural failures in the U.S. political system continue to prevent meaningful progress on actions needed to improve U.S. competitiveness.
Drug and Alcohol Use Among College Students:
Addiction Center: College students make up one of the largest groups of drug abusers nationwide. Starting out in college produces some natural social anxiety for many students.
As students are facing the high demands of coursework, part-time jobs, internships, social obligations, and more, many turn to drugs as a way to cope.
Alcohol is involved in the vast majority of substance-related problems on college campuses. Because drinking is often socially acceptable.
Political gridlock:
FiveThirtyEight: How much longer can this era of political gridlock last?
Divided government is probably imminent, and the electoral pattern we’ve become all too familiar with — a pendulum swinging back and forth between unified control of government and divided government.
New Jobs are STEM:
Pew Research Center: The STEM workforce (science, technology, engineering, and math) has grown rapidly in recent decades.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics identifies projects for strong growth, many are STEM. Increasing diversity in the STEM workforce is closely tied to the educational system.
Fiscal outlook and debt:
Congressional Budget Office: CBO projects a federal budget deficit of $2.3 trillion in 2021, nearly $900 billion less than the shortfall recorded in 2020.
At 10.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit in 2021 would be the second-largest since 1945.
Federal debt is held by the public—which stood at 100 percent of GDP at the end of the fiscal year 2020.
Charter Schools:
EducationWeek: A charter school is a tuition-free school of choice that is publicly funded but independently run.
Conceived over 25 years ago in Minnesota as a means to loosen red tape around public schools and free up educators to innovate, charters have since grown into a national movement that spans 44 states plus the District of Columbia and includes around 7,000 schools and 3 million students.
Economic models used, and predictions derived from them, tend to have a narrow and shallow understanding. There are thousands of economists at work predicting current and future outcomes. Unfortunately, however complex the models are, the capability of providing accurate outcomes is in question. Currently the economy is in a recessionary state, and applying this narrow and shallow approach will always be behind the real world outcomes. As the saying goes, “they are playing inside the sandbox, and oblivious to their surroundings.”
Decisions made always have a future outcome, not always knowable in advance. However, failing to attempt or predict and monitor outcomes for revision, will usually produce an undesirable outcome. In the case of trade deficits, they are reported and knowable. The 17+ Trillion trade deficit is funding provided to other trading partners in pursuit of their growth objectives at the the expense of U.S. futures.
Prior to 1998, trade deficits were manageable. Over the period from 1998 and 2022, imports have resulted in increasing loss of real income and degradation of the U.S. infrastructure. Today, the suggested method of improving the infrastructure is to borrow. Prior the this time taxes and fees from production paid for these items.
Additionally, the trade deficit can be used by trading partners to build their infrastructure, military, shipping, and buy other assets. China has routinely purchased raw materials resources previously used by the U.S. when manufacturing was performed in the U.S. China has also made agreements with countries such as Italy and Spain to secure shipping ports.
The data below indicate much of the 30+Trillion in deficit is, in fact, an outcome of taking a global perspective, where China and other countries have not reciprocated. A case could be made the U.S. is funding Chinese and Russian aggression.
Recession seems to be a long-term prediction. With the possibility of international conflict, shortages will more likely occur than not. Plan for depression.
United States Census Bureau Provides data for Imports vs Exports and resulting trade deficit for the period of 1992 – July 2001. All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.
This is an update of the New Rules: U.S. Economy and International Trade posting, which states that the Most Favored Nation (MFN) status was given to China by Congress in 1992. Refer to that posting for a background discussion.
The chart indicates that before 1992, the trade deficit was relatively minor. Since 1992, the overall trade deficit has continued to grow. Reviewing data provided by the United States Census Bureau indicates the majority of the U.S. trade deficit is with Asia, mainly China.
The total trade deficit for the period 1992-2021* is 17 trillion, 132 billion, 255 million.
The World Trade Organization (WTO), established in 1995, has the objective of facilitating international trade.
Several articles and research papers have been written on open free trade. Review the CATO INSTITUTE for background issues that impact global trade.
U.S. GDP Growth Rate data for 1992 – 2020
macrotrends website provides U.S. GDP Growth Rate data for 1992 – 2020.
The question frequently asked, “what is the ideal growth rate?” A healthy rate keeps the economy in an expansion phase of the business cycle. U.S. GDP growth rate for the period is 2.38%, within the desired rate of 2% and 3%.
Factors included in determining the quarterly GDP are published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP reflects data internal to a specific economy. Economists use varying definitions and formulas for determining GDP.
As data presentations, the chart and tables are interesting and provide some limited information regarding the health of the U.S. economy. However, are not sufficient to evaluate, understand and make predictions on the future.
The website contains a Presidential Documents Archive with collections of public messages, statements, speeches, news conference remarks, documents such as Proclamations, and Executive Orders.
Growth in deficit spending began in 2009 following the 2008 market slump. Future deficits over $2,000,000,000,000 may be an annual occurrence.
Annual Interest payment on the national debt exceeds $550,000,000,000, nearly the total cost of education for K-12 schools, or the Department of Defense budget.
Annual borrowing is required to fund the difference between federal tax revenue and expenditures.
Horizon scanning is the observation of issues from a high level and is frequently referred to as viewing activity from 40,000 feet (eight miles up). The point being, that occasionally organizations and society become so engrossed in the detail, that they miss the overall picture and can’t see the forest for the trees.
Data identified in the figure and table for Imports vs Exports & Trade Deficit indicate the total trade deficit for the period 1992-2021* is 17 trillion, 132 billion, 255 million. That is 815,820,238,095 on an annual basis.
Information in this posting will be addressed in the SOTU: BACKDROP SUMMARY for 2021-2028.
Roadmap of an interconnected system of universities specializing in computer science and cyber security. This system originated in India with funding provided by the USSR. The campus consists of over 500 buildings on 500 acres.
Several faculty from the USSR were assigned to the campus, and faculty from the India university attended universities in the USSR. Major international corporations provided their hardware and software under contract for updating and distribution by students and faculty. This may have led to graduates with significant knowledge and experience on accessing and manipulating these resources, thereby compromising the international digital communications network.
Given the knowledge and experience of graduates, they are highly sought after, and are employed in organizations worldwide.
Background:
Horizon scanning without a specific agenda. Refer to the "About" link on the Online Education website. Additional postings are listed in the Research Category.
Computer science and associated professional fields are the roadmaps and gateways to communications for social, business, government, medical, logistics, industry, space, military communications, and more.
Cyber security is a necessary component of a digital communications network. Aggressors, be they competitors, enemy states, or the curious and mischievous hacker, need to be prevented from accessing digital communications and information. Cyber Security is a growing field of study and employment.
Note: For a broad discussion on the subject refer to the ink and embedded video titled NATO Cyber Defense Center launches cyber threats 2030 overview, a discussion on digital, social, cyber, conventional, AI, and international cyber warfare at the bottom of this posting.
The following examples demonstrate the results of applying horizon scanning to interconnected and independent events. Observation research can be initiated by the information presented on TV, radio, printed media, conferences, or other sources. Rarely, does an observation represent a single state of a single issue. Often they are complex, complicated, or confusing issues.
Keep in mind that findings do not reflect decision-making outcomes, and are considered a null hypothesis until agreed on by at least three independent researchers, or documented and verified information sources.
After initiation of research, there is no contact between the researcher and the organization or persons under study. Organizations and persons under study tend to change strategies and tactics frequently in response to changing environments. Therefore, revisiting initial outcomes prior to publication is necessary.
In addition to understanding the event under observation, information may indicate changes occurring in the future, and impact other events.
Interconnected Events
Observation Research Event I - Initiation
While attending a conference on higher education, attendees introduced themselves and exchanged business cards. In addition to administrators and faculty in attendance, members of commercial organizations providing services to K-12 and higher education schools participated with the intent of acquiring new business relationships.
Discussion concerning course preparation and support services provided to universities, an expanding field of business, was presented by an attendee. Information printed on the attendee's business card was researched on the internet with positive results. Further research of the attendee revealed that in addition to working as a representative of the company, was an active member of a local school board. Such relationships are not uncommon in education.
The company identified on the card is an organization listed on the page of the previous support services link. CEO of the company was a previous member of a top international internet search firm. Activities of the commercial support services organization were researched revealing it is a recent startup. CEO of the organization has academic roots in the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay, India.
Observation Research Event II - IIT Bombay of India
IIT Bombay: English is the language of instruction.
Wikipedia: Provides an overview of the university.
As stated on the page for IIT Bombay, it was established in 1958 under the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), with funds provided by the then Soviet Union. Vision and Mission of IIT Bombay (Staff Handbook, page 10-11 the .pdf)
The Institute received substantial assistance in the form of equipment and expert services from the USSR through UNESCO from 1956 to 1973. It also received serval experts (59) and technicians (14) from several reputed institutions in the USSR. The UNESCO also offered a number of fellowships (27) for the training of Indian faculty members in the USSR. (page 10-11 of the .pdf)
The campus is a fully residential institute, comprised of several hundred buildings on several hundred acres. All students and most faculty for all programs live on the campus. Students are accommodated in its 15 hostels with in-house dining. The campus also provides individual homes for families and excellent amenities for sports and other recreational facilities. Included are medical services for the entire family, and stores for shopping.
Freshmen study in an open classroom environment.
Sophomores assist as teaching assistants for the freshmen class and are encouraged to work with commercial organizations as interns during the year.
During the junior and senior years, students begin researching and contracting with the largest international organizations that provide current hardware and software for student projects.
Graduates of IIT Bombay are highly prized by international corporations. International students are limited to no more than ten percent, with the traditional number around one percent. The number of employers desiring to hire graduates is restricted by invitation as demand for graduates far exceeds availability.
There is limited coursework in the humanities and social sciences. The tight focus on the program of study produces highly qualified and effective graduates. This approach is also common outside of the United States making it difficult for U.S. students to compete. Computer Science faculty in the U.S. are highly populated by graduates from outside the country.
It is common among institutions of higher education to have collaborative student transfer and research agreements.
Monash University is Australia’s largest university with extensive courses and study options, research projects, and international exchanges. This combination of assets provides an education that sets graduates apart from their peers.
Monash provides students with all the tools, support, and resources needed to study online, on-campus, and everything in-between as part of the course of study.
Prior to entry to the university, students must complete a “Diploma” which is a combination of technical courses including science, math, and information systems. As with IIT Bombay, there are few requirements in the areas of humanities and social sciences at the degree level.
The National University of Singapore (NUS) is the oldest higher education institution in Singapore. According to most rankings, it is considered to be one of the best universities in the Asia-Pacific region, and in the world. NUS adopts features of the British system, such as small group teaching tutorials on top of regular two-hour lectures, and the American system of course credits.
Yale-NUS College is a liberal arts college and was established in collaboration with Yale University It is scheduled to merge with NUS by 2025.
The School of Computing (SoC), established in 1998, has two departments – Computer Science and Information Systems and Analytics.
The department of Computer Science offers two undergraduate degree programs – Computer Science and Information Security. As with IIT Bombay, graduates of this program are highly sought by international companies and universities. Refer to the bottom of the linked-to page for commercial and academic organizations cited.
NSU has the largest virtual supercomputing facilities in the region and uses Internet2 technology to make distance learning possible. Students from Singapore and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology can learn and interact with one another in one virtual classroom.
The international digital pathway between universities provides the ability for administrators, faculty, and students to share information, collaborate, and cooperate on projects in virtual cyberspace.
It has become routine for universities and independent international organizations to create opportunities for students and others to test and demonstrate knowledge and skills acquired in the computer science field of study. The intent of these opportunities is to enhance understanding and performance in cyber security.
Observation Research Event V - Cyber and Social Hacking
DEF CON Workshops is one of the popular independent organizations demonstrating real-world security and social engineering measures for physical sites and applications for cyber security. It may be considered productive or counterproductive. The intent is to determine threats and countermeasures to provide cyber security to sites. On the opposite side of the coin, participants may learn how to hack through the cyber security of sites to access or change the content of hacked sites.
The DEF CON category on YouTube provides a popular series of videos on hacking. It may not be what comes to mind when the term "hacking" is mentioned.
Summary Comments: Observation Research Events I-V
As stated in the opening, observation research is a method of horizon scanning to acquire information. It can be initiated by the information presented on TV, radio, printed media, conferences, or other sources.
Rarely, does an observation represent a single state of a single issue. It is a method of gaining insight into issues of the time and potentially offers a vision of the future. Upon initiation, no contact is made between the researcher and the organization or persons observed. Final conclusions regarding the outcome are seldom reached. It is a never-ending information-gathering process.
Comment I:
It appears from the information provided by the universities linked-to, that the education service industry is indeed global, and possibly covers every continent and culture. That there is a network of agreements between the universities that would provide a path for students to move freely between global universities and employers providing entrance and visa requirements are satisfied.
Communication between computers and peripherals internal to organizations is made possible with the application of local area networks (LANs). Communication between local LANs and external organizations is made possible with the application of wide-area networks (WANs).
Software Engineering is the design component for software that creates computer and peripheral operating systems, and application programs that create and manage information systems for commercial business and personal services.
Comment III:
Universities worldwide are developing large-scale interconnected campuses that resemble towns and factories. Examples of large-scale campuses are IIT Bombay, India, the National University of Singapore, and the Suzhou Dushu Lake Higher Education Town of the Peoples Republic of China. Refer to the links above.
Comment IV:
Entrance requirements for degree programs indicate completion of science and mathematics requirements must be met before acceptance and entrance to degree programs. Humanities and social sciences are not a significant part of the degree programs as they are in the U.S., where students who graduate from high school in the U.S. score 37th among major competitors.
Comment V:
In the physical sciences, virtually everything that is created can be reverse-engineered. Students in the above-referenced programs learn how to do it.
International hardware and software companies provide academic organizations and students with their products to practice on and to make engineering changes under contract. Most cyber security breaches come from inside the organization. Sony Picture Studios Hacked.
Independent Events
The best security measures are provided by individual users. There are a large number of automated systems attempting to sell products and services or acquire users' personal and financial information.
Virtually everyone receives calls and emails from these systems daily. Commercial businesses and government entities routinely sell information of individual customers and citizens'.
It is best to assume anything can be hacked. Your phone, computer, car navigation, communication systems, and more can be hacked, and controlled by someone else with the tools and training to do so.
Email Examples:
1). Typical example is an email is received with the logo of a bank on it. The email contains a form asking the recipient to verify their information by entering their user name and password in the form. Placing the mouse cursor on the link, not clicking on it, will provide the actual address of the server the email came from.
The domain name is shown on the lower left-hand corner of the web page. The domain name is entered into the search area on the web browser. And, in fact, it is not the bank! In fact, it is a website located in Beijing with images of a large international corporation. The domain is listed as registered at the same address as the Chinese communist army. The location of the webserver is in Texas.
Webservers can have services that track the Internet Protocol (IP) address of sites that visit a company or private website. Checking the server log for results of visitors revealed that twenty-four computers located in Beijing, and eight computers in North Korea were crawling the website weekly. Search Engine Watch provides a full discussion on the issues.
Tools located on the bottom of the COM CENTER page were used to research the real domain registrant, and enter the actual domain in the URL space on the web browser. The result of the search revealed the site sending the email request was chinatonga.com, a domain name that has now been deactivated.
2). A second case as in 1). above. An email was received with the image of a bank on it. Once again the email requested the User Name and Password for a bank account. Placing the mouse cursor over the link revealed it was a personal email address. An email from a private account does not redirect to a web page as above.
However, unseen to the viewer or originator of the email, there is an IP address hidden in the header of the email. This email was not associated with the organizations in 1). above. Using tools from the COM CENTER again, it revealed the physical location of the originator of the email. Results of tracing the IP address led to the home of a senior executive of a company that held the accounting information of outside vendors.
This posting could continue endlessly. Examples of cyber security breaches continue every day and night. An example: hacking school systems reveals such an example.
When viewing a Wikipedia page, read and test the reference links at the bottom of the page . . . there is a wealth of information to be revealed by doing so.
Education is international commerce and has become a big business. With the advent of current and future communications technologies, each organization is seeking new and growing markets, and hopefully access and increasing profits. However, there is a point at which expansion, growth, and competition dilute profits and sustainability.
Communications technologies are an outgrowth of engineering principles and associated products. With Increasing speed, engineering principles and associated products outgrow the last version. Within this process, errors in cyber security occur as products and management are not keep up to date. New hacking products create the need for putting in place more stringent control features, frequently overlooked.
This results in a continuous flow of funds from government funding, student tuition, and endowments to purchase new communication products and keep up with the education market.
If history is a lesson, this process as with all growth processes will hit a plateau and stall. Marginal competitors and those that overreached and became heavily indebted will be forced out of the education market.
Bolstering current expansion is the current imbalance of import and export markets. Future posting of the Real status of the U.S. economy. This will demonstrate how the U.S. and western economies are funding China's education, business, industrial, commercial, military, and territorial expansion.
Information in this posting will be addressed in the SOTU: BACKDROP SUMMARY for 2022-2028.
Initial research presented in the IntelRag is intended to be understood and useful for most citizens.
Methods utilized are nonparticipatory and passive in nature. This method is based on horizon scanning, a future technique. Observers acknowledge and record external issues and events, similar to noting, recording and reporting news and research narratives.
External issues and events may appear to be interconnected and/or repetitive in nature. When this occurs, the observer may initiate an external search for supporting data and information to explore validity for an initial hypothesis. When supporting data and information validate the initial hypothesis, research may continue to the next phase.
Observation Research Phase II:
This phase is conducted as nonparticipatory or passive observation research, meaning there is no contact or discussion with the subject(s) or objects observed. Refer to the Type of Participant Observation Chart.
The observation research process moves into a phase supported by multiple observers and/or the use of verified and validated data and information provided by external sources. Outcomes at this step are reported as observations, not as opinions.
To form opinions, the research process must include agreement among multiple observers and/or data and information sources on the same issue or event.
Observations should include data and information from reliable sources, such as government databases and reports.
When presenting data and information narratives acquired from reliable sources, the result is reflected as an observation, not as an opinion.
When multiple observers report concurrence regarding the same issue or event, opinions may be stated. However, opinions require credible evidence and proof of the hypothesis to be accepted.
Active research issues will be documented on individual subject pages with links under the “Research” menu.
Observation Research Phase III:
Observations reported in the Intelrag are summarized for citizens to review.
Upon completion, observations may be published as individual posts in the Online Log under a relative category.
Observation Research Phase IV:
Potential candidate issues to appear:
The Homeless – U.S. Economic Disequilibrium – Digital Warfare – Cultural Warfare & Insecurity – Far-east Instability – North Korea Weapons Test-bed – China Monopoly of World Resources – South and Central America Socialism – Status of the Soft WWIII.
Research Notes:
Observation researchers must establish and maintain the research process with care and vigilance. Far too often, personal attitudes or opinions are inserted into the process, thereby misdirecting outcomes away from the issues or events. This results in a case of analyzing a participant or external source thought process, not the issue or event.
When performing observations and evaluating outcomes of occurrences, be they related to things, ideas and concepts or actions of individuals or groups; observations frequently demonstrate interacting components forming a system.
People interact with things and other people, and express ideas and concepts between them as a system. Even things in the form of technology provide feedback which affects the interaction of things, people and groups as systems.
Organizations are hierarchical in nature, with a systemic relationship between levels. Activities and beliefs usually flow through an organization at varying degrees, from the top level to the lower level.
Technology systems may have sequential and/or parallel components and systems which are affected by data inputs throughout the main system. An error in data at one component can be feed to other components and systems causing irregular functioning or failure.
Refer to the Online Log – Research Category: Success with Complex Issues and Systems, and Complex Ordered Issues and Systems Model.
There are numerous research applications and techniques available for evaluating issues, events, conditions, science, engineering, finance, economics, anthropology, humanities, sociology, psychology and more.
Frequently research is presented as divided into two regions of logic, qualitative or quantitative. The fact that both of these general research regions are identified as “having issues,” is perennial in the research community. Qualitative constantly attempts to prove it is quantitative, and quantitative attempts to prove outcomes are valid. The statement at the conclusion is frequently . . . “requires further study.”
In reality, it is common, as presented in the process outlined above, to begin with qualitative research, and followup with quantitative research.
Another issue is the use of out-of-date references while performing research. There are thousands of colleges, universities and organizations worldwide, where researchers frequently utilize out-of-date and unverified references.
Ethnography is a term related to observation research of peoples and cultures with their customs, habits, and mutual differences. Keep in mind that as a nonparticipating and passive observer, the challenges can be significant. Presence of mind, the ability to remain calm and take sensible action is required to achieve success.
Research subjects are generally covered in statistics courses at the undergraduate level. Theoretical and applied research courses are required at the graduate level. Review of courses and videos depicts a dearth in the application of ethnography and observation research outside of college degree requirements.
Comments: The following videos are typical of issues and events observed on a daily basis. However, they are on a lower order of complexity than those identified in Phase IV as Candidate Issues for research.
Ethnography or observation research
Ethnography: Ellen Isaacs at TEDxBroadway
Free Online Open Learning Courses: National University of Singapore (NUS).
Quantitative and Qualitative Research for Beginners: Basic introduction to the complex world of research methods and provides both theoretical and practical information for students to give them a foundation for carrying out research in a wide range of disciplines using quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods.
Background: The 2020 forecast, as with all writings in the online log are the result of observations of information provided to the public via the news media, government, and public organizations. Observations are not intended to provide opinions. Further information on the research process can be found by selecting the “research category” in the online log.
References linked-to in this forecast provide a view of changing dynamics over decades and centuries. Current decision-makers rely on available information and must apply their knowledge (experience) and wisdom to possible cause and effect of their actions. Decisions made at one point in time may cause unintended consequences decades later.
The forecast is limited to three areas of concern for national and international relations, and the summary. Areas of concern are:
1). Commerce, 2). Impeachment, 3). Negotiations, and 4). Summary.
The national and international focus may be shifting from armed conflict to economic confrontation and cooperation trough bilateral free-trade agreements.
The United States balance of trade continues to accrue a net deficit of around $500 billion a year. Most of this debt is the result of previously unrestricted imports into the U.S. from China as a result of the most favored nation (MFN) status assigned. Trade deficits began escalating in 1998 and continue to this day with a total imbalance of over $9,000,000,000,000. Current trade negotiations with China appear to be an attempt to reverse and normalize trade relations. Additional trade agreements between the U.S. trading partners are ongoing.
A similar economic imbalance exists between the United Kingdom and the European Union (EU), resulting in Brexit. The UK government formally announced withdrawal from the European Economic Community (EEC).
Weapons of warfare, territorial disputes, and intimidation appear to be applied in negotiations to achieve or maintain economic status. Nations of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), may be violating the principle of the agreement by developing and testing weapons through third party nations to support this effort, possibly North Korea and Iran.
Commerce Notes: Throughout history, nations with surplus wealth have turned to importing goods and services, including employing foreign military services as protectors and servants. In so doing, agents of importing and exporting nations develop profitable relationships facilitating trade. Eventually, wealthy importing nations become dependent on this arrangement for goods and services and experience a loss of wealth, worker skills, access to raw materials, national and international logistics capability for shipping, commerce, and communication. Essentially, importing nations become economic colonies of other nation(s) which are reluctant to give-up their advantage without conflict.
Internally, the result of unbalanced trade in importing nations may lead to the eventual fall of the government, as with Rome and the British Empire. Although the internal issues with Rome do not appear lockstep with current U.S. or UK scenarios, they are the gradual movement from independent economic strength to dependent weakness and increased taxation. “Give the people a circus,” socialism and downfall.
The chief benefactor of current U.S. trade policy is Chinese economic reform. Originally, the U.S. moved to grant China MFN status to open-up markets and assist in creating a western style economy in China. However, the result has been for China to give preferential treatment to businesses owned or controlled by the Chinese government, thereby gradually eliminating private ownership and prosperity. Internationally, China continues to manipulate currency exchange to maintain and increase government wealth to expand in acquiring mineral resources worldwide, develop the military, and expand territorial claims, all fueled by globalization, a wrong turn in history.
2). Impeachment
The central and time-consuming issue for the U.S. is attempted impeachment of the president by congress. Observation indicates internal review by the Department of Justice (DOJ) may conclude mindless, unbalanced and corrupt activities by a combination of lawmakers and public servants who may be working in concert, effectively destabilizing and paralyzing the charged functions of lawmakers and public servants.
The Question: Is there factual supporting evidence of activity by the president, identified in the Constitution, requiring impeachment? Or, is there factual evidence of intent by lawmakers, government servants, foreign powers and/or outside influences to overthrow the government?
Treason as defined in Article III, section 3 of the constitution. “Whoever, owing allegiance to the United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere, is guilty of treason and shall suffer death, or shall be imprisoned not less than five years and fined under this title but not less than $10,000; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.” Treason in criminal law?
Overthrow: Removal from power; a defeat or downfall. “plotting the overthrow of the government.” (possibly through a series of interconnected events).
Impeachment Notes:Impeachment is a seldom used power of congress. Two presidents, one senator, the Secretary of War, and fifteen judges have been impeached since 1798. What remains to be experienced is the question “can congress be impeached, and by whom?” Many would respond to the question with, yes, at the ballot box. However, should issues addressed in the Inspector Generals (IG) Report bear fruit, and upcoming Department of Justice (DOJ) Report identify criminal activity, will it be treated as NOT political, but criminal?
Do the synonyms of treason above apply to conduct of the House of Representatives during the recent impeachment process? Is it acceptable to say that the process was “just political?” Does the U.S. House of Representatives have immunity from the scales of justice, while then requiring the scales of justice apply in the U.S. Senate? It appears some believe so.
3). Negotiations
On the national and international scene, at any given time, on any given issue, there will be visible and unseen participants with a stake in the outcome of a negotiation. Central issues in active negotiation at any time can be trade agreement with China, nuclear nonproliferation treaty, space exploration, immigration, conservation, healthcare, deficit spending, responsibilities of congress and many more.
Underlying negotiations are unseen participants at a support level or outside controlling authority, such as the world trade organization (WTO). Negotiations, in this sense, form a complex set of participants seen and unseen which can essentially hold the primary issue hostage from making progress and successful completion. (refer to the online log “research category” success with complex issues and systems). The concept of controlling global trade and attempted world government by the EU is depicted in Twitter streams hierarchy of EU participants that may also impact global negotiations.
Further compounding issues in negotiations may be “models of collective behavior” and “the madness of crowds” effect which have potential implications. The most common problem can be the combination of “undue influence” and collective behavior which may explain party-line voting in government. As an example, all members of the one party fall inline behind the speaker’s objectives regardless of the rationality of the issue. Such a move shifts the issue at hand to personal, non-legislative activity. Influence of this nature occurs in national and international negotiations in business, government, education and industry.
Negotiation Notes: Negotiations may be misdirected to provide personal gain from change of ownership of assets which are not the property of negotiators. Politicians may have authority to create trade agreements, however, may also set in motion detrimental outcomes for citizens, while at the same time realizing personal benefits – for their actions.
The difficulty facing negotiators from an international perspective. even when the intent is genuine and above board, is the inability to predict long-term outcomes. (Henry Kissinger discuses U.S.-China ties at the New Economy Forum in Beijing. A history dialog with implications for the future. The content of the message is the lesson. Always view negotiations from the perspective of the other party, and today, from the interests of their counterparts). The coming cold war with China.
4.) Summary
2020 appears to be a year of continual sparring by political parties for position in congress and local government.
Deficit spending (borrowing money beyond tax and fee revenues) continues, currently around twenty-six trillion dollars . . . with no end insight for increased deficits. Moving towards socialism.
Deficits, which are not allowed in many states, will require additional increases in taxation or deficit borrowing to cover expanded social programs. Moving towards socialism.
Candidates campaigning for elected positions are suggesting government pay for medical care and education for all. Moving towards socialism.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are increasingly applied to reduce costs by replacing labor with automation. This has been forecast to temporary raise wages for high-tech computer programmers and information science employees. Forecast also leads to lower incomes for the same high-tech employees in the future as AI and ML routines are employed, reducing the demand for human programmers.
China is developing social reforms, competing technical skills, and an engineering base that exceeds that of the U.S.. Chinese new economy forum. Mostly financed by excessive exports to the U.S.
Observation Notes:
Comments on impeachment are not included in the summary at this time.
2020 may be a turbulent year for many reasons beyond the three areas of concern identified above:
Negotiations with North Korea, China and Iran have not proven to be reliable. Frequently, if not always, broken promises.
Financially, below zero interest rates exist in some global markets, and the stock market has become more of a hustle than an investment arena. Yes, the market has risen significantly and may be the result of hyping sweetheart stocks, while heavily shorting others . . . is it time for caution?
Background: The following issues arise during communication of information, acquisition of knowledge and wisdom. Who knew what, when did they know it, and how did they acquire it?
When preparing plans and programs, attending school or performing research, discussions occur between members of groups. As activities progress, changes occur as a result of lessons learned or changing objectives. Public news or information on the issue may not reflect current status or final outcomes. Discussions based on incomplete or untimely results will most likely be inaccurate.
A common occurrence is when students receive information from teachers without familiarity through experience or association with the subject; and are lacking in wisdom. Information combined with knowledge through experience leads to Wisdom. Without completing the cycle, conflict can occur between participants and the public.
The following are modified from the Merriam-Webster online dictionary. Definitions may appear to overlap.
Definition of Information: Communication is the operative word. Visual, oral, written or any combination thereof.
The communication or reception of knowledge or intelligence.
(1) Knowledge obtained from investigation, study, or instruction
(2) intelligence, news
(3) facts, data
The attribute inherent in and communicated by one of two or more alternative sequences or arrangements of something (such as nucleotides in DNA or binary digits in a computer program) that produce specific effects.
A signal or character (as in a communication system or computer) representing data.
Something (such as a message, experimental data, or a picture) which justifies change in a construct (such as a plan or theory) that represents physical or mental experience or another construct.
A quantitative measure of the content of information specifically a numerical quantity that measures the uncertainty in the outcome of an experiment to be performed.
Definition of Knowledge: Experience is the operative word. Art, agriculture, business, education, engineering, government, manufacturing, medicine, research, science and more. Design and testing to prove concepts.
The fact or condition of knowing something with familiarity gained through experience or association.
Acquaintance with or understanding of a science, art, or technique.
The fact or condition of being aware of something.
The range of one’s information or understanding answered to the best of one’s knowledge.
The circumstance or condition of apprehending truth or fact through reasoning.
The fact or condition of having information or of being a learned person of unusual knowledge.
Definition of Wisdom: Discern is the operative word. Formulate and apply successful concepts based on acquired information and knowledge.
Insight: Ability to discern inner qualities and relationships.
Good sense: Judgment
Knowledge: Accumulated philosophical or scientific learning.
