Research Considerations

Using statistical analysis to accomplish observation, change and evaluation are the traditional methods. After decades of using this approach, it is apparent that outcomes are becoming less reliable. True, they are important, however, users and applications have become so remote from the subject under observation that natural interpretations of the data and resultant analysis by users are producing misleading outcomes.

During the current recessionary period, eighty percent of business reported normal outcomes which are traditional. However, financial news agencies promoted a recession, depression . . . which followed with naming the follow-on period a bull market. In the final analysis, that would be considered a failure in a research candidates paper. What actually occurred was a failure of ethics . . . in the financial markets . . . which was underwritten by the government . . . which passed the gambling losses back to the public.

Research comprises creative work undertaken on a systematic basis in order to increase the stock of knowledge, including knowledge of man, culture and society, and the use of this stock of knowledge to devise new applications. It is used to establish or confirm facts, reaffirm the results of previous work, solve new or existing problems, support theorems, or develop new theories. (Wikipedia)

Statistics is the study of the collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization of data. In applying statistics to, e.g., a scientific, industrial, or societal problem, it is necessary to begin with a population; or process to be studied. (Wikipedia)

Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be the estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date. (Wikipedia)

Inaccuracies in forecasting outcomes frequently occur for various reasons:

1. The forecaster is using an inappropriate model for the issue under study.

2. Data applied to the model is not accurate, has not been verified and validated, or is from inconsistent populations.

3. Intentional manipulation of outcome analysis and published narratives to misdirect the user.

4. Researchers have personal interests in the outcome which sway the decision-making process to a specified objective.

5. Research is funded by a beneficiary of the research which may impact the design and outcome.

Posted in Active Research.